> Very quietly the CDC has mentioned it now thinks it is around (0.8% to 0.26%)[1]
The CDC says CFR -- deaths out of cases that involve symptoms -- could be as low as 0.26% but this is bonkers. New York City has seen 16,992 deaths plus 4,760 probable. The total city population was 8,336,817 as of last July. So if we assume every single man, woman and child in NYC was infected and symptomatic, we get a death rate of 0.204% using only confirmed deaths, and 0.26% by adding in the probable cases. (Note that this doesn't include excess mortality, which could add thousands of deaths.)
Of course, antibody tests last I checked were only at about 20% for NYC, and presumably many of those people were asymptomatic. So the rate is potentially much, much higher than that. But even under ridiculously "optimistic" assumptions, the CDC's lower bounds are crazy.
The CDC says CFR -- deaths out of cases that involve symptoms -- could be as low as 0.26% but this is bonkers. New York City has seen 16,992 deaths plus 4,760 probable. The total city population was 8,336,817 as of last July. So if we assume every single man, woman and child in NYC was infected and symptomatic, we get a death rate of 0.204% using only confirmed deaths, and 0.26% by adding in the probable cases. (Note that this doesn't include excess mortality, which could add thousands of deaths.)
Of course, antibody tests last I checked were only at about 20% for NYC, and presumably many of those people were asymptomatic. So the rate is potentially much, much higher than that. But even under ridiculously "optimistic" assumptions, the CDC's lower bounds are crazy.
Edit: calculators are hard, fixed a bogus number.