As an anecdote, I left the Bay Area (and California (and the USA)) in January.
Amongst my cohorts/closest friends I know in the Bay Area:
- one moved to Colorado a year ago.
- another moved to Berkeley from SF, to buy a house.
- several moved to New York City and Seattle.
- a few moved back to Canada.
In my time in the Bay Area, it always seemed like there was constant migration: some folks leaving, some folks just arriving. Usually more of the latter.
Due to the current pandemic, I'd definitely guess that the rate of folks leaving hasn't changed significantly (compounded with layoffs, etc.) but the rate of folks arriving certainly has! No interns are flying out, no recent grads are moving in.
If things "return to normal" then I'd expect this to revert, but those people aren't just milling about waiting for the gates to open. They're finding other opportunities, and when the dust settles, the opportunities in the Bay Area aren't going to be the highly competitive opportunities they once were.
Don't underestimate how many extra people are now leaving because they are working from home for the indefinite future and can get a lot more for their money (and lower SALT) elsewhere.
I'm in NYC and we are strongly considering moving out when our lease expires in July. Google NYC isn't reopening at least through the end of the year so it doesn't make sense to continue paying a lot to live in a one bedroom apartment that is sub-optimal for multiple people to work from, especially while most of the typical amenities of city life are closed. The main reason I lived here was for a short commute and that's irrelevant now.
New grad anecdote: If not for Covid I'd be in Palo Alto right now. Instead I'm buying furniture to set up an office in my parents basement in Toronto. My sister and her fiance already grabbed the extra room on the first floor for the same thing (otherwise they'd be in two different cities with apartments).
All three of us are sort of "just milling around waiting for the gates to open". Not literally, any of us could technically be in the city our workplace is in today (the border isn't closed to work related travel), but we are waiting to be required to show up in person at the office before we move (back). In the meantime we'd rather be here where we have lots of space, good company, no rent, and so on.
Amongst my cohorts/closest friends I know in the Bay Area: - one moved to Colorado a year ago. - another moved to Berkeley from SF, to buy a house. - several moved to New York City and Seattle. - a few moved back to Canada.
In my time in the Bay Area, it always seemed like there was constant migration: some folks leaving, some folks just arriving. Usually more of the latter.
Due to the current pandemic, I'd definitely guess that the rate of folks leaving hasn't changed significantly (compounded with layoffs, etc.) but the rate of folks arriving certainly has! No interns are flying out, no recent grads are moving in.
If things "return to normal" then I'd expect this to revert, but those people aren't just milling about waiting for the gates to open. They're finding other opportunities, and when the dust settles, the opportunities in the Bay Area aren't going to be the highly competitive opportunities they once were.