>a dice roll every time whether it is gonna create more sleep than focus
This is highly individual. There are people who can go to sleep after drinking a cup of coffee, who feel sleepy after drinking small amount (how small actually varies) and then people like me that can go on for 5 more hours no matter how tired, even after being awake for more than 24 hr - there is no dice roll, works 100 %.
That you can sleep does not imply you get the same quality of sleep. It's well known that alcohol and caffeine reduce sleep quality. So even if you can sleep after having a coffee, it's probably still not a good idea. Have a decaf if it's after 3pm.
This always reminds me that there is a difference between public health policy and individualised care.
Generally speaking, you're probably correct, and yet for some individuals some of the time some amount of alcohol, caffeine, psilocybin, mdma, etc etc etc, may have a beneficial effect for some period of time.
In case you aren't aware, there are a number of active clinical research trials underway demonstrating the efficacy of MDMA and psilocybin, under the support of the FDA:
In other words, these medicines are being explored specifically through the lens of public health policy. The question of their benefits being a statistical anomaly (when used in appropriate settings) is looking increasingly unlikely.
Some anecdata: I generally do not feel caffeine at all after ~2 hours. This is consistent under all circumstances; whether it's the morning cup puttering out around lunch time or whether it's an after-work latte fading long before I need to sleep.
Honestly, if I'm truly tired I can go to sleep immediately after drinking a cup. I don't generally intend to do this, obviously, but I've never felt like coffee prevented me from sleeping. It gives me clarity and makes me feel invigorated, but it doesn't feel like the opposite of sleep.
This is highly individual. There are people who can go to sleep after drinking a cup of coffee, who feel sleepy after drinking small amount (how small actually varies) and then people like me that can go on for 5 more hours no matter how tired, even after being awake for more than 24 hr - there is no dice roll, works 100 %.