I find it hard to believe that kick-ass Linux kernel developers (among many others) give away a whole operating system, worth billions in dev. costs, yet on the same planet someone is thinking about charging $10 for a time waster.

There is nothing wrong with trying to make a buck. But the disparity of programmers' mindsets is amazing.

The majority of the world chooses not to work for free. My landlord certainly won't let me live rent-free. I can't go to a movie for free. So I'm not sure who are the weird ones (or disparate) in this equation.

That said, I love, use and appreciate open source. It's just not the only answer, and many people working on open source are compensated by a sponsor (IBM, Sun, etc.). Is it fair to pick on someone for expecting to be paid for their work? World of Warcraft isn't much more than a time waster.

I am not picking on anybody, I don't code much for free either (should be apparent by looking at my profile). I am just wondering out loud how some guys afford to do that, while others (myself included) try to follow PG's advice of building something small and easy on top of mountains of free products created by others.

In fact, if I were Zuckenberg, I'd give a fat chunk of Facebook stock to various free software projects such as PHP, etc. Moreover, I believe it should become a tradition, those guys are the reason why "startups are so cheap!" (quote) these days.

They did, with VA Software when all the free software hackers became temporarily rich. And we all know how that story ended :)

I think you need to expand the definition of paid. These people aren't slogging away in a mine. They are writing code. Many of them enjoy it so much they like to do it for reasons other then money. Also, don't forget that if you contribute to an open source project you are recognized for doing so. You are apart of a community. That is worth something. Thinking of open source solely as work done for "free" isn't the right way to think about open source.

I'd bet that the potential market of people willing to waste their time betting on celebrities, sports, and the latest whatever in current events is greater than the segment of people willing to waste their time trying to find X device driver to get Y hardware working properly on a laptop that came with Vista preinstalled.

I wish the best developers got paid the most, but the reality is, it seems to go to the ones who are best at getting people to part with their hard-earned cash.

I'll give you a few tips that will make you rich, listen carefully.

Let people bet with paypal in every prediction, just $1 per bet. Winners share the pot and you keep 5% of proceedings.

Make a triple choice so odds are more distributed Yes,No,Tie and use simple icons for one-click-bet (like digg).

Put sports, lots of them (but don't over saturate).

Keep it simple as it is right now.

Put a section at the top with the top ten predictions by bets, for marketing (one million dollars bet on obama/mccain will draw a lot of attention).

You will charge for VIP accounts a year later for extra services but you won't need that money, you'll be rich already.

Good luck and remember me if you hit the jackpot.

I know you will!

More tips:

Don't let people post predictions to the front page, you be the filter and the editor, you are the decider.

Let people buy 10, 20 or 50 "tokens" to fill their account so they don't have to go through paypal everytime they bet.

Allow a maximum of tokens per certain period of time (100 a month) so people don't get addicted and ruin your site with lawsuits.

Also, keep suspicious "winners" at bay with algorythms.

Pay prizes directly to users accounts (not back to paypal) so they "reinvest" again playing, so the money is always in your control and you will make lots of money in interests, (you could give away your comission if you want so the whole pot goes to the players).

If they decide to cash out, send the money to their paypal account. Not everybody will, so less overhead at the end.

To take the token idea further, make sure it's impossible to evenly divide tokens by an action. For instance, if $10.00 purchases 1000 tokens, charge 150 tokens for each "bet".

One last tip:

If paypal is not an option try SMS

1-800-FOOBET * ITEM * USERID * 1|2|3

$1 per SMS, work it out with the telcos.

SMS is the new micropayment, believe me.

Of course in order to do this the guy will need to move to Malta or some other jurisdiction where online gambling is legal, but other than that you're spot on.

I believe internet gambling is allowed in Antigua and some other caribbean islands

That is how you will make money - gamblers love it - but I do think it would be illegal if you made any kind of headway. Isn't this like off track betting? You need to host from a place in which it is legal to do that.

Yes, don't try to charge for this, you will get nowhere fast..

Giving away a few hundred Pro accounts may get you so far, but as soon as you stop you will come to a brick wall - I can't see people paying for this.

Though I do like the idea a lot! ;)

Just a thought: you could add a brief explanation on what people can get using your app, just a couple of words on the start page.

What problem are you solving? Why would people want to get involved in this? Aren't there established competitors (I know for sure there are in politics) with communities? Why do you think people will pay $10 a year when they don't even pay for the most important thing online (email). This is the 0 cents vs 1 cent arguement - most people won't pay for anything if it requires them to go through the effort of pulling out their credit card. I'd say if it is a free time waster, you might grow a community, but even then, where is the money coming from? Ads? I think free time waster ad supported websites as a business model is failing - if YouTube and Facebook are struggling, why would yours work?

Another site to be aware of is http://inklingmarkets.com/ ... they have a free prediction market that anyone can use, and then have it available as a platform for enterprisey goodness.

Your site is the cleanest of the ones I've seen, so that may be a win. Make it easy to embed predictions in websites, and make an API for people to build mashups with.

As others have said, though...I don't think many people will pay $10/mo unless there's something much more compelling that we haven't seen yet.

Oh, a "Closing Soon" search would be nice, too.

Charging won't work IMHO... However, why not make it an actual betting system where people can make money, then skim a profit from each bet/trade/etc.

Sure, might have some legal hoops to jump through, but an online betting on tech things could be fun and profitable.

Positioning it as something that you can make money with, makes it a whole different thing IMHO.

I like the idea. Though, in its current form, probably not enough to pay.

As a suggestion, I think the site could be little more fun/game-y instead of looking like a list of articles. And maybe make the current hot/popular prediction be the most prominent thing on the page asking 'Do you think <link>X</link> or <link>Y</link> will happen", so a new person on the site immediately has something to see and do.

Good luck!

check out www.predictify.com --- might give you some ideas on how to make a buck (and what you are up against!)

Some guy I know is doing the same thing. This validates your idea but obviously also implies a bit more competition. http://www.hubdub.com/

And for anyone who missed this one lately ---> look at the stakes on this bet! http://www.longbets.org/362

also intrade.com is a full-fledged futures prediction market in ireland but may give some ideas.

you might consider adding an openid signup/signin

The percentage indicator seems misplaced. Its a bit confusing at first to even know what it means.