I'm pretty sure that Tesla alone is over 1% (maybe 1.5 to 2%?) of the US car market. Worldwide is likely to be even higher for electric cars in general.
The thing is that shifts in large markets like this take a long time to really be realized. It has taken Tesla 15 years to go from 0% to over 1%. Their current aggressive plans call to double that in another 2 years.
The real question is what kind of change can they make over the next 15 years. And for that, we need the crystal ball...
Oh, I underestimated total sales. For some reason I thought the US was closer to 15 million sales this year. I do think that estimate may be slightly undercounting Tesla this year, but I could be wrong.
The thing is that shifts in large markets like this take a long time to really be realized. It has taken Tesla 15 years to go from 0% to over 1%. Their current aggressive plans call to double that in another 2 years.
The real question is what kind of change can they make over the next 15 years. And for that, we need the crystal ball...