I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total.
Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps and mistakes are speed bumps rather than mountains to get over.
Sadly I also think they can't afford to slow down, because if they do I really think the other larger car companies will eat their lunch.
I think if they could do one thing to improve their chances, it would be to find a check on Elon. A Gwynne Shotwell for Tesla, basically. Someone who can divert his energy towards reality, and stop him from making impulsive, insane mistakes.
Example: Trying to ramp up the 3 way too fast, and over-automating their production. Those were undoubtedly very expensive missteps, and if I recall, there were a bunch of top-level departures just before the 3's ramp-up. Where those people (rightly) telling Elon that his target was unreachable, or his method inappropriate, and getting fired for it? It sure looks like it...
Is Gwynne Shotwell even the best example? It isn't like SpaceX is really in the best of a financial situation. Information on their financials is limited, as they are a private company, but most information shows they haven't reached a sustainable profit, and many of their ideas of how to reach their valuation (like Satellite internet) have hit snags.
They are capital spending very heavily to advance their tech, so a lack of "profitability" I don't think says any more than it does about Tesla-- they would be fools to pocket their profit instead of turning it around to spend on growth.
The fact that they could fulfill their whole loan that they wanted, and that they lost many important government satellite contracts recently seems to indicate that this is a business that hasn't reached a stage that it isn't out of the woods.
According to certain investors, this is a business worth $30 billion. That's not a company that should be struggling with these things.
United Launch Alliance had similar revenues (right around 2.5 billion) in 2018, but most only value them at $3 billion. This 10x multiple of their most obvious competitor doesn't seem to make sense.
Well, if you don't follow spaceflight / LVs it sure doesn't make much sense. From my PoV (very casual fan of the above) it actually is pretty spot on to value ULA at 1/10th value of SpaceX.
However reasons for that are too long to go into in one comment ... Mainly origin of & current owner structure of ULA, their current LVs cost & future and dynamics of SX launch business.
If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around.
Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a better word).
I think I would love that, especially since (disclaimer: I do not own a Tesla), the Model S and 3 that I've sat in, seem very spartan from a luxury vehicle standpoint.
Moreover, to my other point: this will free Tesla to innovate like crazy on battery, charger, motor and drivetrain technology and perhaps attain a monopolistic lead , while in the car business I the competition is beginning to creep up.
From a traditional car manufacturer's standpoint, this may allow them to stop spending on battery/drivetrain/superchargers/... technology and focus on making the car shell.
The problem is, it depends on what you mean by "shell". I agree that most Tesla vehicles are fairly spartan from an interior standpoint, but I don't see that to be a drawback. I guess I'm not the target market for a "luxury" car, even though I've got a 3, and I'm also on my 2nd BMW. I simply don't care about butt massagers and cooled seats and chilled glove boxes or whatever we're supposed to mean by "luxury".
I want a quiet, comfortable car. It doesn't need the 7000 buttons that come in a new S-Class today.
But I don't want BMW to take a Model S drivetrain, and put their horrible nav system on it, their keyfobs, their UI. Part of what's so great about the Tesla is that I just walk up to it and get in, and it works. They've rethought enough of the car experience that it's hard for me to draw the line at what I'd want BMW to do.
I guess I'd want BMW... seats? and maybe interior finishes/colors? Maybe? A bit more thought into finishing the trunk? But certainly not just a BMW with a tesla battery and motor.
Have you talked to Tesla owners much about this? I think you'll find that they do value the package far beyond the mechanics that move the car.
In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. I see that Tesla is very serious about bringing the benefits of autonomy to market across all their vehicles.
> In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time.
Waymo has full self-driving in limited public commercial use; there is no way that they can be charscterized as “taking their time” compared to people marketing less than full autonomy now with promises of full autonomy at some unspecified time in the future.
> I see that Tesla is very serious about bringing the benefits of autonomy to market across all their vehicles.
I see that they are serious about selling vehicles today based onpromises of full autonomy tomorrow; it's less obvious they have the combination of seriousness and competence to actually deliver on that promise.
So the Navigate on Autopilot that now will change lanes on its own (without driver input) isn't a step towards full autonomy? There are currently zero other companies that have anything as close in normal vehicles, zero. (Waymo is too niche and only really works in perfect weather like in AZ, so I'm counting them out.)
> 1 step forward on changing lanes automatically, 2 steps backwards on driving into concrete dividers automatically and killing the driver.
People die in cars: true. Telsa features have played a role in human death: also true. However it's overly simplistic to point a finger at a popular (to love and hate) brand. However, human ignorance has also played a role in those deaths. Tesla isn't fully autonomous and they make no claims their cars are today. This isn't the same as making futures claims. So while Tesla features have failed you also turn a blind eye in your statement to the lives saved. Those are less well publicized because they are not as interesting with regard to headlines.
How many lives saved quantifies the risk of loss of life? While I'm not saying with hard data that Tesla has saved more lives than it's killed with features it provides, but if I were to wager a guess my money would be on the lives saved side of the tally.
The path to fully autonomous is a rocky one. There's so many things that will be huge hurdles the closer we get. But, take a step back. Look at the forest instead of a broken branch. We all benefit from these strides and mistakes overall. The media does a great job of removing all considerations of a story's context when it's convenient for a sensational article. Realize there is an ownership of the situation lacking in your argument. People die every day because of bad choices and mistakes of their own volition and those should be given a more equal weighting when armchair quarterbacking these types of positions.
Driver chose to ignore safe operational procedures of heavy machinery and died.
...is much different than...
Tesla car collides with wall, killing driver, while Autopilot engaged.
Disclaimer: I do own a Tesla, and it does not drive like any other car I've drove or ridden in during my lifetime. My Dad says it is like being in a space ship.
No, no, and no. Would I like Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jaguar to have electric vehicles? Yes I absolutely would! But would you have over the air updates, a push towards self driving (even if they're not there yet!), and a very strong push towards sustainable manufacturing if Tesla was just an OHM that sold to those companies? You would not, because they have to cannibalize their own ICE business to fund / push their EVs. The world is better off with Tesla standing alone as a single company, whether or not they succeed.
Not only do ICE car companies not issue OTA software updates, some use the same software for driver assist features for years in a row. I had heard good things about Subaru's EyeSight system and went to check out the 2019s Outback. I was floored to learn that the system is no smarter than it was in 2017, when this version came out.
Are they not learning from the millions of miles their customers have driven in the last two years? One would think that there would be at least some incremental optimizations (either for common cases or edge cases) to make the systems safer.
Some people actually prefer a car whose characteristics stay similar after they buy it. Sometimes these updates are beneficial, like when Tesla improved the braking performance by 20% after getting ragged on by Consumer Reports. But on the other hand I would be pissed if I bought a car that started trying to kill me after an OTA tweaks some weights in a neural net(e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8a0jfh/autopil...)
I understand the risks of OTA updates, but it should be possible for them to release a 2019 model that has more nuanced algorithms than the 2017 model.
Another data-point is that I literally just went to talk by a researcher from Toyota's self-driving car group and they 1) mentioned some OTA updates they made on their auto-pilot features in the last several months. 2) talked about their data collection efforts from production cars- order of petabytes/day
I don't know much about subaru but other companies are definitely integrating advanced driver assist features/updates. No idea how they compare to Tesla's and in frequency of improvements but this is definitely a thing other companies are working on.
Glad to hear this. I recently test-drove the new RAV4 Hybrid, which just came out. I was unimpressed by their "lane tracing" system, which seemed noticeably worse than the CRV's equivalent.
I would be much more likely to pull the trigger on the Toyota (which gets much better gas mileage, due to the hybrid powertrain) if there was a hope of software updates.
I am hesitant to spend $30,000 on a vehicle whose driver assist features are currently subpar, and will only fall further behind over the lifetime of the vehicle. Makes me just want to lease, despite being generally opposed to leasing.
Even without LTE uploads, they could at least pull data down when vehicles are in for repairs, oil changes, etc. I realize they can't store infinite amounts of data on the vehicle, but they could definitely keep a little data about disengagements or other important events.
Once you become an OEM< you're giving up power and manufacturers will want some ability to dictate what and how things are done. That seems more restrictive than their current model.
As far as Merc/BMW/Lexus/Audi etc... they're all in the electric game now because tesla popularized it and proved the market. If they hadn't done that, its unlikely those brands would be releasing top luxury vehicles with electronic options now/in the near future.
As a Tesla owner I absolutely want Tesla to sell the whole package. I was a long time BMW owner and hated their joke of an iDrive system. Tesla is a software first company and constantly improves the customer experience. My car today is actually way better than when I bought it. I don’t care about drive train and motor. I mostly care about Tesla’s approach to toward constantly improving the owner’s experience during the lifetime of the car
To elaborate, there are many many automotive suppliers for engines, brake pads, wiper blades, tires, wheels, et cetera, that many current automotive manufacturers utilize to attempt to create their cars. They aren't the major value in the chain. Those products end up getting commoditized quickly. No one buys a car because it comes with AC Delco brake pads.
They cannot afford to slow down because their market cap will fall and (1) they won't be able to get more money, and (2) they won't attract fans and media.
They literally can't afford to slow down because they are carrying a massive amount of debt and the only way to pay it off is to sell an awful lot of cars.
Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps and mistakes are speed bumps rather than mountains to get over.
Sadly I also think they can't afford to slow down, because if they do I really think the other larger car companies will eat their lunch.