I would try to get the company to answer these questions:
- Which is the most likely exit?: 10 MM, 100MM, 1B, 10B?
- Which best approximates my ownership?: .0001%, .001%, .01%, .1%?
If you can get answers to these, it's probably enough of an anchor to make an assessment. There so much variance in the outcome that additional accuracy won't add very much to the analysis.
EDIT: I should rephrase the first question as:
Which of these is the lowest number that would be considered a good exit?
If asked this way, it should account for the liquidation prefs, since those are normally irrelevant during "good" exits. It should also account for some level of risk, since the lowest good exit may be significantly lower than the actual exit (i.e. 100M would be good, but 1B is possible).
What is "MM"? Millimeters? I'm joking of course, but I don't understand what "MM" means in a money context. I know that $1K is one thousand dollars, $1M is one million dollars, $1B is one billion dollars, $1T is one trillion dollars, and gosh, by now, we're talking some serious coin... but "MM"? Even if MM were Roman Numerals, one would have to assume an implied multiplication.
- Which is the most likely exit?: 10 MM, 100MM, 1B, 10B?
- Which best approximates my ownership?: .0001%, .001%, .01%, .1%?
If you can get answers to these, it's probably enough of an anchor to make an assessment. There so much variance in the outcome that additional accuracy won't add very much to the analysis.
EDIT: I should rephrase the first question as:
Which of these is the lowest number that would be considered a good exit?
If asked this way, it should account for the liquidation prefs, since those are normally irrelevant during "good" exits. It should also account for some level of risk, since the lowest good exit may be significantly lower than the actual exit (i.e. 100M would be good, but 1B is possible).