You're delving into sheer speculation. Exactly what went wrong at their meeting is not known, many stories about it have circulated, the NDA thing is just one of them.
Kildall was not some ignorant yokel from the backwoods. Besides, titans of the computer industry do deals with yokels all the time.
In fact, Kildall did later make a deal with IBM to sell an IBM branded CPM/86 for the PC. Consumers had a choice between IBM PC-DOS, and IBM CPM/86. The former was $40, the latter $240. People (like me) chose the cheaper one, because nobody could explain what was better about CPM/86. And the rest is history.
You are absolutely right about speculation. But so is the assumption that it all did not matter at all and the WIndows dominance would have happened in just the same way had Gates been a farmboy (I'm exaggerating a bit, you never claimed that). But in dubio pro reo is not applicable, since nobody is accused: it's not a crime to get along better with some group than someone else.
Maybe that is the misunderstanding that kept this discussion alive for so long: I'm not trying to privilege-shame anyone, just questioning the claim that it did not make a difference at all. (Actually I think that privilege-shaming is a really stupid concept, it won't ever achieve more than make its targets bitter or cynical, if it has an effect at all. It's not wrong to take an opportunity, just don't force it through improper means)
Kildall was not some ignorant yokel from the backwoods. Besides, titans of the computer industry do deals with yokels all the time.
In fact, Kildall did later make a deal with IBM to sell an IBM branded CPM/86 for the PC. Consumers had a choice between IBM PC-DOS, and IBM CPM/86. The former was $40, the latter $240. People (like me) chose the cheaper one, because nobody could explain what was better about CPM/86. And the rest is history.