There are real merits to subscription models, not only in accounting but in risk avoidance (you haven't paid up front) and support (the vendor has a cash incentive to keep you happy). There are obviously drawbacks too, like lock-in and the risk of a vendor collapsing, but in some cases it looks like a good decision.
As far as consumer-facing? I'm not so sure.
Lots of companies, especially the ones with protected IP or network effects, can kick their customers around quite a bit without shifting demand.
I don't want Microsoft Office to be subscription based. I've never met anyone who does, unless what they actually wanted was the online storage subscription. (I know some people who initially said they did because they didn't want the menus to keep changing on them between editions, but then the subscription version developed the same problem.) But it's a real fight to avoid their implicit network when people keep sending me .xls files or formatting-dependent .docx or all the other things Open Office won't actually manage, so I (or rather my employers) end up paying the subscription.
Spotify, Hulu, etc are more popular, but it's still fairly telling that no one offers direct purchase of TV shows in anything short of ultra-expensive box sets. Even buying music and movies outright has become increasingly tough to do. There are probably people who will save money even with a lifetime Spotify subscription, but I suspect people who don't vary their listening a lot lose out compared to direct purchase, and people with tastes not easily provided by one streaming service have definitely lost out. It basically looks like IP holders shied away from direct sales as soon as they couldn't inflate costs by overpricing a physical medium, and left consumers without a choice.
The last category are I suppose subscriptions offering consumable products on a schedule, like Dollar Shave Club. These have more obvious value - there's no lifetime purchase possible, so it's not much different than a "reorder monthly" option. But even here they mostly seem to be succeeding by offering novelty or taking on markets that have been overpriced for ages.
I'm not sure I can think of a consumer-facing subscription product equivalent to e.g. CircleCI - something that could be sold as a lifetime purchase, which is instead sold as a subscription - for which buyers voluntarily chose a subscription model.
TiVo has a lifetime subscription but I assume most people go for the monthly.
Most consumer-oriented services (Spotify, Apple Music, Netflix, etc.) could be sold with a lifetime option but I suspect the balance sheet liability would be unattractive to most companies and the big upfront payment toward an ultimately unknowable future service would be unattractive for most consumers. (Will the company still exist? Will I still want the service? Will the company come out with a new and better service and put the one I paid for on legacy support?)
>Even buying music and movies outright has become increasingly tough to do.
Really? I admittedly don't do it a huge amount but my impression was that CDs and DVDs were still pretty readily available for purchase on both physical media and digitally.
Microsoft Office is still sold as a one time purchase if you prefer. Although Microsoft is getting quite annoying with in app messaging encouraging people to switch to the subscription version. Also the onedrive storage is a very good value by comparison, so you’re basically burning money to buy the one time purchase version.
As for music, TV shows, movies, it’s definitely possible to buy them rather than using a subscription service. Music is the easiest, Amazon and iTunes still offer MP3 purchases for reasonable prices that you can play anywhere and not have to worry about DRM. Movies and TV shows are more complicated because they all have pretty crappy DRM and the pricing is kind of ridiculous, but it is possible to buy them outright.
As much as I hate how everything is moving to subscriptions, there are occasions when I prefer it. For example my Plex pass, I don’t really trust that the company will be around and providing enough value in the long term for me to invest in a lifetime subscription even though it is offered. And so I pay annually and sometimes I don’t renew. I think I paid for 3 out of the last 5 years, depending on how much use I’m getting out of it.
There are real merits to subscription models, not only in accounting but in risk avoidance (you haven't paid up front) and support (the vendor has a cash incentive to keep you happy). There are obviously drawbacks too, like lock-in and the risk of a vendor collapsing, but in some cases it looks like a good decision.
As far as consumer-facing? I'm not so sure.
Lots of companies, especially the ones with protected IP or network effects, can kick their customers around quite a bit without shifting demand.
I don't want Microsoft Office to be subscription based. I've never met anyone who does, unless what they actually wanted was the online storage subscription. (I know some people who initially said they did because they didn't want the menus to keep changing on them between editions, but then the subscription version developed the same problem.) But it's a real fight to avoid their implicit network when people keep sending me .xls files or formatting-dependent .docx or all the other things Open Office won't actually manage, so I (or rather my employers) end up paying the subscription.
Spotify, Hulu, etc are more popular, but it's still fairly telling that no one offers direct purchase of TV shows in anything short of ultra-expensive box sets. Even buying music and movies outright has become increasingly tough to do. There are probably people who will save money even with a lifetime Spotify subscription, but I suspect people who don't vary their listening a lot lose out compared to direct purchase, and people with tastes not easily provided by one streaming service have definitely lost out. It basically looks like IP holders shied away from direct sales as soon as they couldn't inflate costs by overpricing a physical medium, and left consumers without a choice.
The last category are I suppose subscriptions offering consumable products on a schedule, like Dollar Shave Club. These have more obvious value - there's no lifetime purchase possible, so it's not much different than a "reorder monthly" option. But even here they mostly seem to be succeeding by offering novelty or taking on markets that have been overpriced for ages.
I'm not sure I can think of a consumer-facing subscription product equivalent to e.g. CircleCI - something that could be sold as a lifetime purchase, which is instead sold as a subscription - for which buyers voluntarily chose a subscription model.