Netflix workloads are a bit different than typical workloads (duck curve traffic right before the evening rush hits, bulk transcoding) and I’m confident Netflix doesn’t pay anywhere close to AWS retail prices. Also, Netflix has its own CDN for serving its video content using their OpenConnect appliances (you’re aware of that, but the audience might not be).
I think you may have missed my point (because everything you wrote supports it).
Netflix moved out of their datacenter and into the cloud because their workload was different enough to warrant the investment. Most enterprises don't have enough of a different workload for that to make sense, so they don't move out of their datacenter.
Dropbox didn't actually move out of AWS, they just started storing new data in their new datacenters. They did it because it was cheaper at their scale, it had nothing to do with lock-in.
And for the same reasons, when the next big thing comes along, most companies won't move out of AWS. Unless there is a significant cost savings or significant new architecture, they won't move. They will just put new stuff in the new thing. Lock-in isn't an issue for most enterprises today, and won't be in the future. Inertia is the biggest thing that stops them from moving old workloads to AWS.
Drew Houston, CEO of Dropbox, confirms my stance argued in this thread on Dropbox’s first earnings call: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/10/dropbox-earnings-q1-2018.htm...