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Wouldn't it be easier to just add one success and one failure and calculate (events+1)/(trials+2) instead of events/trials?



I'm not sure what you mean.


I'm talking about pseudocounts (add one success and one failure) [1] or maybe Agresti-Coull estimator (add two successes and two failures) [2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession

[2] http://users.stat.ufl.edu/~aa/articles/agresti_coull_1998.pd...




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