I'm not sure open source EDA will happen and be as competitive as open source software has been in general. Many of the tools are extremely complex. For your example of just a simulator and systemverilog: the spec for SV is more than 10 years old, yet the best oss can do today is compatability with a small subset of it, and orders of magnitude slower than a commercial simulator. The reason? The skill set to write one of these not only needs very solid programming skills and knowledge of advanced algorithms for performance, but also some domain knowledge to understand how the tool should work from the user side and he side. This last point is the reason most oss EDA today is written by hw engineers who know some programming, rather than true software developers. Of course you will get some cases where a single engineer knows both areas well and produces some nice/interesting tools like vloghammer, icarus, ventilator, etc. However these folks are rare, and for oss EDA to be truly competitive it needs many contributors with this skillset. Thats why a language as big as SystemVerilog has not once been fully implemented in open source yet. So hard to see the other, arguably harder, challenges like Place and route, STA (on smaller nodes), analog simulation, parasitic extraction, etc being taken on in oss EDA for anything but older technologies, or with very limited capabilities. Open source IP on the other hand could take off.