First, the taxi companies never made apps, so the lock-in factor just wasn't there.
Second, the absence of an app makes it hard for any single company to succeed with every option that customers want. Willing to pay more for a nicer car and a professional driver? Or want to save money by sharing a ride with someone else? Sorry, you get whatever cab is closest, unless you're willing to look through the phone book, and the cab companies can't stop you from seeing their competitors in the phone book. With an app, I can get all of my options taken care of without ever seeing another company.
Third, taxis are heavily regulated and even have to buy medallions from the limited share the city makes available. Uber and Lyft completely skirted regulations, removing an artificial barrier to monopolization.
Fourth, all of the above greatly diminish the effects of the economies of scale that Uber and Lyft enjoy. Why spend a bunch of money on, say, advertising, if it isn't going to help because people simply jump in the nearest cab regardless? How can you block the competition by copying their features if nobody has apps with features to copy? How can you buy out the competition if you don't have enough cash because needing to invest in medallions and drivers slows your growth?
It's not an accident that Uber and Lyft have put companies like SF's Yellow Cab out of business.
With self-driving technology, the economies of scale become even more influential. Who's going to get first dibs on exclusive partnerships with car manufacturers and tech companies? Who's going to have the funds and the clout and the experience to negotiate with regulators and governments? Who's going to have the software engineers to develop their own self-driving technology? Not small taxi companies, that's for sure.
I'm talking about before the Uber-Lyft duopoly came into being. It's obviously futile to make an app now. How many taxi companies had mobile apps before 2009?
Not true at all. I can't hail a cab with ease from 90% of the places I might want to call an Uber. They also can't be counted on to deliver a quality experience. Therefore, people are switching to the new technology of rideshare apps. Where the incumbents have a huge advantage because using them if you have already is seamless. Self-driving is just the next step in the chain.
Right. The idea of app based hailing is far more impactful on the monopoly question than the self driving part.
And Uber's delusional investment premise notwithstanding, it's pretty clear that there's not going to be a genuine monopoly in app based taxi services. At minimum there will be a few major players.
But the relevant point is that there's no reason to think autonomous driving will strongly affect the monopoly dynamics of taxi services really at all.
Autonomous taxis are taxis, which we understand, with computers replacing the people. That's all they are.
Magical thinking abounds.