> The modelling indicates that they won't get more frequent
Is simply incorrect.
"One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century."
Isn't saying they will not get more frequent, it is saying they may get much more frequent but that it will take a long time before we will be able to detect this reliably.
Which is logical given the limited number of data points.
That's not quite an accurate rebuttal. That modeling study projects a large increase in severe hurricanes, not in hurricanes overall.
My understanding is that the models suggest that hurricanes will get more severe, in a fashion that outpaces any downward trend in quantity.
"In the Bender et al. 2010 study, we estimate that the effect of increasing category 4-5 storms outweighs the reduction in overall hurricane numbers such that we project (very roughly) a 30% increase in potential damage in the Atlantic basin by 2100."
That's a difference in phrasing. All hurricanes won't increase in frequency, but they will get stronger. That isn't contradicted by saying that high strength hurricanes will become more frequent.
"One study projects" but how many other studies are there on the same subject that do not project that? Or, is there only one study found that covers this range of years?
Is simply incorrect.
"One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century."
Isn't saying they will not get more frequent, it is saying they may get much more frequent but that it will take a long time before we will be able to detect this reliably.
Which is logical given the limited number of data points.