> You are still misunderstanding the concern. The problem is not poorly trained drivers. The problem is that humans become less attentive after an extended period of problem-free automated operation.
I understand the concern. I am saying the problem of slow return from periods of extended inattention is not significant in comparison to general human ineptitude.
Level 2 systems may rely on "humans serving as a reliable backup," but they won't always need their humans at a moment's notice. Being able to predict failure modes and (a) give ample warning before handing over control, (b) take default action, e.g. pulling over, and/or (c) refusing to drive when those conditions are likely all emerge as possible solutions.
In any case, I'm arguing that the predictable problem of inattention is outweighed by the stupid mistakes Level 2 autopilots will avoid 99% of the time. Yes, from time to time Level 2 autopilots will abruptly hand control over to an inattentive human who runs off a cliff. But that balances against all the accidents humans regularly get themselves into in situations a Level 2 system would handle with ease. It isn't a trolley problem, it's trading a big problem for a small one.
If you actually look at the SAE J3016_201609 standard, your goalpost-moving takes you beyond level 2. "Giving ample warning" puts you in level 3, whereas "pulling over as a default action" puts you in level 4.
The original point - that level 2 is a terrible development goal for the average human driver - still stands.
Yeah, you're talking about level 3. Most people think that's not a realistic level because "ample warning" requires seeing far into the future. Better to go straight to L4.
Also, you are definitely invoking the trolley problem: trading a big number of deaths that aren't your fault for a smaller number that are. Again, not the issue here. L2 needs an alert human backup. Otherwise it could very well be less safe.
But I would say the thrust of your argument is not that off, if we just understand it as "we need to go beyond L2, pronto".
I understand the concern. I am saying the problem of slow return from periods of extended inattention is not significant in comparison to general human ineptitude.
Level 2 systems may rely on "humans serving as a reliable backup," but they won't always need their humans at a moment's notice. Being able to predict failure modes and (a) give ample warning before handing over control, (b) take default action, e.g. pulling over, and/or (c) refusing to drive when those conditions are likely all emerge as possible solutions.
In any case, I'm arguing that the predictable problem of inattention is outweighed by the stupid mistakes Level 2 autopilots will avoid 99% of the time. Yes, from time to time Level 2 autopilots will abruptly hand control over to an inattentive human who runs off a cliff. But that balances against all the accidents humans regularly get themselves into in situations a Level 2 system would handle with ease. It isn't a trolley problem, it's trading a big problem for a small one.