It very important to be able to control your sourcing of parts and materials, and this will be Teslas biggest challenge. However I really believe thats the only thing they have on Tesla, and if Tesla solves this, it will bring a world of hurt on the incumbents.
One of the hardest lessons learned at Toyota, according to their management, is that fully automated assembly lines eliminate a crucial opportunity for human ingenuity to intervene. That's why Toyota made a deliberate effort to retain and reintegrate 天才 engineers and mechanics on the line.
From a Quartz article in 2014:
So far, people taking back work done by robots at over 100 workspaces reduced waste in crankshaft production by 10%, and helped shorten the production line. Others improved axel production and cut costs for chassis parts.
“We cannot simply depend on the machines that only repeat the same task over and over again,” project lead Mitsuru Kawai told Bloomberg. “To be the master of the machine, you have to have the knowledge and the skills to teach the machine.”
This mentality highlights the hubris of Silicon Valley. Manufacturing is not easy, and the "tech" that Tesla has isn't unique. Their main advantage is good design which is arguably easier to copy than manufacturing or software.
I live in an area with an automotive industrial base. There are hundreds of tier 1, 2 and 3 suppliers in addition to the five vehicle assembly plants within 150 miles. Each required real-estate acquisition and development entitlement and tax incentive pursuit and contract negotiations. There were roads and highway interchanges. Sewer lines were laid and power lines run and electrical substations and ordinary fire stations built.
All those suppliers built manufacturing capacity because of established relationships with the automaker. It's why there will be German owned suppliers associated with a German manufacturer and Japan owned suppliers associated with a Japanese manufacturer, etc.
Manufacturing at scale happens by outsourcing. It's not the technology that limits, it's business capacity.
> Copying manufacturing is easier than making new software.
That's a good one. Next you'll tell me supply chain and logistics is just as simple as buying SAP or even better, that SAP is for fools and you're betting off rolling your own solution.
Eh? Modern jets of all types are full of software.
An unattributed quote my father told me back in the 80s: "Software saved the aerospace industry. Every other way of adding expense to an airplane also adds weight."
And you really think Elon will not figure out a way to do the same? SpaceX has already accomplished a much harder task (reusable rockets), which not even nation states have been able to do.
Elon's main focus right now is "building the machine that builds the machines", he says they will have the most advanced manufacturing in the world, vehicle or not, and based on his past successes, I don't see anything that will stop him other than death or illness.
> And you really think Elon will not figure out a way to do the same?
Scaling car factories across the world is something that took BigCar decades and billions upon billions of dollars. And the level of automation expertise BigCar has is something that Tesla won't have for years to come.
> SpaceX has already accomplished a much harder task (reusable rockets), which not even nation states have been able to do.
SpaceX had three advantages:
1) no political bullshit like NASA has to suffer from with political aims shifting at least with every new POTUS, only Elon at the top with a clear, extremely long term vision
2) they were free to research in any direction they wanted and in the workflow they wanted, without being stuck on technologies, suppliers etc. due to unions, political collusion or other "government-only issues"
3) massive increase in technological capabilities: SpaceX came at perfectly the right time to enjoy the combination affordable super computing, 3D printing and especially decades of material science and rocketry research, while the Russians were/are stuck due to a lack of money and the ULA was hampered by being stuck on Waterfall-style development and general government issues.
