I think there's a very strong argument to be made that Windows nearly killed Apple because Jobs made the same mistakes he is making today with the iPhone platform.
Microsoft actively courted hardware manufacturers of all shapes and sizes. Apple sued anyone who tried to produce compatible hardware without their blessing.
Microsoft actively courted developers, by providing them with a strong toolchain and turning them loose on the platform. Apple sacrificed developers on the altar of user experience.
It's not much different today. Android is "fragmented" across who-knows how many different hardware sets, which has the dual result of making the platform less consistent for the benefit of letting consumers pick the hardware that does what they want at a price point they are comfortable with. Android favors developers almost to a fault; Apple's abuse of developers in order to preserve the user experience is legendary. If history is any indicator, Jobs should be very afraid. Apple has a tremendous first-mover advantage, and there is one very key difference in that they have the larger software base at the moment, but with the speed at which the Android platform is evolving and growing, it isn't difficult at all to imagine that Apple could find the iPhone eating dust in a few short quarters.
And here is where the battle lines are drawn this time:
> Microsoft actively courted hardware manufacturers of all shapes and sizes. Apple sued anyone who tried to produce compatible hardware without their blessing.
No-one is going to make a compatible iPhone, and Apple is also using patents to try prevent anyone making anything even comparable. On hardware, Apple is fighting harder than last time.
> Microsoft actively courted developers, by providing them with a strong toolchain and turning them loose on the platform. Apple sacrificed developers on the altar of user experience.
Now, Apple can actually stop you selling your software on their platform, in an instant - power only to be dreamed of in 1985! Add to that, the ban on Flash that is forcing developers to do twice the work or only support the dominant player (Apple.) They did the same with the Mac, no cursor keys and so on, but this time it's even stricter. No Google Voice, no way to run the same code on iPhone and Android, no apps that infringe on Apple's ever-moving goalposts...
Apple has not given up on the strategy they tried with the Mac. Oh no, it's just that they weren't strict enough and the stupid courts never ruled in their favour! Now they have a proper level of control, they can make sure the iPhone wins! BUWAHAHAHAHAAAA!
I think there's a very strong argument to be made that Windows nearly killed Apple because Jobs made the same mistakes he is making today with the iPhone platform.
Jobs wasn't even at Apple after John Sculley forced him out in 1985, you know. Even before the Macintosh debuted, it was Sculley who decided to raise the price from the originally-planned $1,995 price to $2,495. Does that sound like a move Steve would make? Contrary to your point, I think Jobs-era Apple is pretty different from Sculley-era Apple.
Microsoft actively courted hardware manufacturers of all shapes and sizes. Apple sued anyone who tried to produce compatible hardware without their blessing.
Microsoft actively courted developers, by providing them with a strong toolchain and turning them loose on the platform. Apple sacrificed developers on the altar of user experience.
It's not much different today. Android is "fragmented" across who-knows how many different hardware sets, which has the dual result of making the platform less consistent for the benefit of letting consumers pick the hardware that does what they want at a price point they are comfortable with. Android favors developers almost to a fault; Apple's abuse of developers in order to preserve the user experience is legendary. If history is any indicator, Jobs should be very afraid. Apple has a tremendous first-mover advantage, and there is one very key difference in that they have the larger software base at the moment, but with the speed at which the Android platform is evolving and growing, it isn't difficult at all to imagine that Apple could find the iPhone eating dust in a few short quarters.