I agree with the author, but their refutation of Musk's argument takes the wrong tack.
Musk's argument = The time needed to create a simulation indistiguishable from reality << age of universe; The time needed for intelligent life to evolve << age of universe; ergo, an intelligent species emerged before homo sapiens somewhere in the (real) universe AND created a simulated universe indistiguishable from the real one.
The author tries to refute this logic by pointing out the flaws with simulated anything, but that doesn't refute the logic of Musk's reasoning. To Musk, the implementation details were long ago worked out.
Problem is, Musk never PROVED anything. His assertion rests upon two axioms.
The fact that we went from pong to COD in 40 years does not mean that in 40 (or 40 million) years hence we'll have a sim universe or even a sim galaxy - more likely, we'll have a really bloody COD BO 40000000.
The fact that Earth went from molten blob to pretty decent place to live in 4 billion years does not mean that 8 billion years ago some other molten blob became something Earth-like in 4 billion years, which by then had a sapient species creating alien Pong, COD, or Madden 50K: The Concussion Continues.
Musk's argument = The time needed to create a simulation indistiguishable from reality << age of universe; The time needed for intelligent life to evolve << age of universe; ergo, an intelligent species emerged before homo sapiens somewhere in the (real) universe AND created a simulated universe indistiguishable from the real one.
The author tries to refute this logic by pointing out the flaws with simulated anything, but that doesn't refute the logic of Musk's reasoning. To Musk, the implementation details were long ago worked out.
Problem is, Musk never PROVED anything. His assertion rests upon two axioms.
The fact that we went from pong to COD in 40 years does not mean that in 40 (or 40 million) years hence we'll have a sim universe or even a sim galaxy - more likely, we'll have a really bloody COD BO 40000000.
The fact that Earth went from molten blob to pretty decent place to live in 4 billion years does not mean that 8 billion years ago some other molten blob became something Earth-like in 4 billion years, which by then had a sapient species creating alien Pong, COD, or Madden 50K: The Concussion Continues.