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And yet people praise SpaceX for doing much better and cheaper with their iterative refinement.

BDUF can work if you have a single organisation with a single stable set of requirements that's reasonably compact. The Kennedy "man on the moon" speech was such an example.

Where it falls down is trying to meet the needs to the 7 billion distinct human individuals, which are inevitably vague and shifting and change in response to publication of software.



SpaceX also doesn't have the track record NASA does, and cannot be compared.

In 50 years when they've been working alongside each other, maybe, but not right now.


NASA has also used iterative refinement in the past.




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