> The most accurate simulation of the human brain ever has been carried out, but a single second’s worth of activity took one of the world’s largest supercomputers 40 minutes to calculate.
The above supercomputer in 2014 was 2400X slower than the human brain. Moore's law is dead so I think your 10000X and 2030 estimates are grossly optimistic.
If you applied your logic to DNA sequencing. The first DNA sequencing took ages and by various estimates at the time it would have taking 100+ years to fully sequence DNA. Fortunately exponential progress doesn't work that way and full DNA sequencing happened orders of magnitude sooner than those pessimistic estimates.
I see no reason to believe A.I. will be any different. But then I don't believe Moore's law is dead. We'll find other ways to extend it. Insert magic here.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10567942/Supercomputer...
The above supercomputer in 2014 was 2400X slower than the human brain. Moore's law is dead so I think your 10000X and 2030 estimates are grossly optimistic.