Indeed, I've been on program committees were we have picked first-time speakers. Usually because the subject seems very compelling, and there is very little overlap with other submitted talks.
If the situation is: We have 5 talks on "Getting started with Xamarin". You pick the experienced speaker, but there is only 1 talk on "Implement your backend in Swift" it is much more likely to get picked.
If the situation is: We have 5 talks on "Getting started with Xamarin". You pick the experienced speaker, but there is only 1 talk on "Implement your backend in Swift" it is much more likely to get picked.