>some kind of licensing deal to provide Android and a stripped down offline version of Google Maps as a backup
I don't think a default offline android will ever be in the picture. If everyone is offline, how will it make money? (android is free, so its far fetched to think it will start charging for that). It is risky for google to just give away lot of map data. Google spent a lot of money trying to acquire it. If it starts distributing it in a nice little package, people will start flashing their in-car devices with it.
I refuse to believe that Google can't pre-fetch ads and monetize their maps in other ways. Want your company logo to appear on the map itself? Pay up. I'm sure fast food chains and places like Starbucks would fork out to get custom pins.
Garmin has tons of map data too, and they "give it away" when you download it for your device. The offline mode might not have all the detail of the live version, but it could be good enough for travelling in remote areas without reception.
I don't think a default offline android will ever be in the picture. If everyone is offline, how will it make money? (android is free, so its far fetched to think it will start charging for that). It is risky for google to just give away lot of map data. Google spent a lot of money trying to acquire it. If it starts distributing it in a nice little package, people will start flashing their in-car devices with it.