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Wow, i gotta say this is like Time Warner/AOL. Perhaps the internet is more mature now to make this work but Im not holding my breath. How will they reconcile the 2 adtech stacks which are huge messes in and off themselves.



I can imagine 3 years from now tech journalists will be writing that "history repeats itself". I can foresee that 3 things will happen:

- There will be a people drain from Yahoo. Anyone was is passionate about Yahoo will feel completely disenfranchised with being merged into a smaller competitor that is owned by a larger company. Some people will hold out for being made redundant in the hope of a good severance package, and some will simply stay regardless, but those who see what is happening will realise that Yahoo is over, and won't want to be a part of the frankenstein being assembled within Verizon.

- Yahoo's main properties (Homepage, Weather, Finance, Mail) will survive, Flickr/Tumblr I don't know. Tumblr itself has suffered from the difficulties of merging into Yahoo's culture and way of doing things. Flickr was resurrected in some ways, but struggles from the difficulties that other web 2.0 brands have - how to stay relevant and interesting to consumers today when the industry has changed so much since their creation.

- Mayer will go. She tried and she didn't succeed. She'll get a decent severance package, but Tim Armstrong will finally get what he's wanted for a long time. Whether he's able to successfully merge two large-sized businesses together I don't know, this is a different challenge compared to acquiring businesses like Goviral or Millenial Media, we're talking about a headcount of ~8000 employees, and there will be lots of duplicate roles. I don't expect the merger to go smoothly - I expect it to be a bit messy.

Either way, the goal of creating a relatively strong #3 to Google and Facebook seems at this point a lost cause - both Google and Facebook have market valuations that dwarf what AOL and Yahoo were worth at the time of their merger, and given a signal of what we might see in the next couple of years.




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