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Over the course of many hundreds of deaths, I've had that happen to me maybe a couple times, like a falling rock trap on turn 5. Occasionally epic shit like this happens: http://alt.org/nethack/player-all.php?player=Ascension -- but more common is early unavoidable pet deaths.

But as you pass the first few hundred turns, the probability that your death is going to be entirely the fault of something you decided to do in the last few turns rapidly approaches one. You can acquire resistances and detection mechanisms quite early, plus your pet is so very useful in that period too.

Once you know what you're doing, every decision is an explicit trade, especially in hindsight.




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