In 2013, Amazon had 65% market share of online book sales [1]. It wouldn't surprise me if this was 20% higher now.
When customers walk into a Barnes and Noble (or any bookstore) and browse books but don't buy (for example, because they found a cheaper price online), they are most likely to end up on Amazon to complete the purchase. B&N did the work but Amazon got the money.
Amazon doesn't have that problem. They don't need to sell books in the store to "pay the store's operating expense" - they just need people to come in and browse.
Currently, Amazon doesn't compete for a high percentage of books (50%) moved through physical stores [2]. They are in the enviable position of being able to create stores that don't leak sales to competitors. This is the final nail in B&N's coffin.
This is an interesting thesis... which is that brick and mortar can work if you also own the online alternative.
I never bought books and B&N because I knew I could get the book cheaper at Amazon. The same with toys when I used to shop at ToysRUs. But those are both goods that I'd actually like to buy on the spot. If I know that the price in the store is the same as online, I'd probably do a lot of in store purchases.
And since I'm a Prime customer, they save 2-day shipping cost to me (I'll continue to be a Prime customer).
I used to hold this viewpoint until I watched a video (I can't seem to find it now) that made a pretty good point. The point was something along the following: "I like book stores. I like going in and flipping through the books. Sure, I could buy the book on Amazon for $4 less, but if I keep doing that eventually book stores won't be around. And I like book stores."
Ever since then, I usually try to buy the book in B&N or wherever, provided that's where I am at the time.
(Something like a campus book store and textbooks, however, is an entirely different case...)
For such concerned customers, Amazon Book store seems to be the solution. So still you can flip the pages and buy online but Book store won't go anywhere.
Seems like retailers either accept this, or fail to.
For example, Best Buy, they knew people were coming in to sample goods and then buying it online. Their solution was simply to agree to price match Amazon, and that appears to have been quite successful, I know I have purchased things at physical BB instead of Amazon due to the policy.
They still make margins on their in-house warranties, and any goods sold not priced matched. I don't legitimately know if they lose money on some goods price matched on Amazon, or if they can pass some of it on to the manufacturer.
Just this week we were in Barnes and Noble, and we skipped buying things because they were cheaper on Amazon. It is sad but true.
PS - We did buy stuff on sale, and get coffee/cake at their little coffee shop, so we aren't complete monsters.
> they knew people were coming in to sample goods and then buying it online.
And even when people go into their store with the intent of buying, they don't, because of BB's poor customer service. My sister just did this - she wanted to buy an iPad, but couldn't find anyone to sell one to her (from the security-locked cabinet). So she did a search on her phone while standing in the store, and bought it from Walmart.com
Additionally, the decline of brick and mortar book stores may have hurt Amazon's book sales. Customers no longer have as many showrooms to browse for books. See also: Tesla showrooms which cannot sell you the car (due to dealership rules).
I hope it isn't. I like B & N book stores so much, I would consider paying a monthly fee just to browse, and hang out.
Every time I go there, I wonder how they keep the lights on.
I leave and look back thinking, "Will this be my last visit?"
I dont know what they can do in order to stay in business. I don't buy books there. I have a weird taste in books, and they just aren't at B & N. I mainly buy old books at used book stores. I do buy magazines there though, and food and coffee.
If by some miracle, I was made CEO. I would try a few things.
I would get rid of Starbucks. All the food and coffee would be in-house. I would basically copy what Starbucks does, but add more food items. I would also expand the eating area. I think Starbucks does a great job, but I'd rather all my money going to B & N. It probally wouldn't be feasible--I imagine Starbucks has some great leases, and agreements?
I would add more seating to the store. No sofas, but more wood seats, and benches.
I would have all security in plain clothes.
They would all be open until 11 p.m., except Sunday.
Their employees are great. I would leave them alone.
I would add a used, and rare book room to each store.
I know I'm rambling, about a business, I know nothing about. I just don't want them to close.
The Barnes and Noble cafes aren't actually Starbucks; they serve Starbucks products (probably for historical reasons) but they have products Starbucks doesn't have, and they don't accept Starbucks gift cards.
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I worked at Nest on their professional distribution channel for some time. The thermostat market is dominated by professional sales (80-90% are sold and installed by professional HVAC contractors) whereas Nest traditionally sold through to a consumer/DIY audience. Nest has a very steep uphill battle against Honeywell the way Apple has had an uphill battle against Windows in large enterprise. Nest just has more mindshare amongst the tech/early adopter community.
I don't disagree its an uphill battle. I'm arguing that Google is a cash machine, and Honeywell is not. Google could continue forever trying to push Nest if they wanted to.
Not to keep harping on the subject (see my comments above), but pre-warming or pre-cooling houses is actually a really great solution to solving our energy problems with algorithms. It's not strictly a "first world" problem.
Imagine a neighborhood of 100 homes where you know all 100 people will return approximately at 6pm in the winter, and they all want 72 degrees. Taking into account the insulation of each home, if you could pre-heat the homes on a rolling schedule (say, heat 25 of them to 75 degrees at 3pm, accounting for 1 degree of heat dissipation per hour, heat another 25 to 74 degrees at 4pm, etc.), you will actually in aggregate save a lot of energy and cost because of inefficiencies in the way we deliver and generate energy during peak times.
That is an interest way of distributing loading of the peak heating requirements. Does Nest have a ability to interact with the other Nest in the neighborhood? Or is it all controlled from a central server?
Not (yet) with other Nests that I'm aware of, but they're making deals with the power companies. Users can get discounts on their bill for allowing the power company to bump energy use down a degree or two during peak times.
Wasting/saving energy is not as simple a calculation as that. When energy is at peak use (say in the winter, around 5:30/6:00 when everybody returns from work), it becomes more expensive for energy companies to procure the requisite energy needed. During these peak times, they often have to buy energy from other companies at a higher cost or find less efficient means of generating it (e.g. coal) to meet the demand. Getting an accurate picture of estimated energy demand can actually save a lot of money/energy for customers.
I work at Nest and it may be a little unclear at the moment (we're working on it), but The Nest API does not guarantee that if you send an ETA of 15 minutes (docs: https://developer.nest.com/documentation/eta-guide), the home will heat to the appropriate level in 15 minutes. It's actually filtered through our algorithms to determine the best course of action to not waste energy but also provide the appropriate level of comfort.
I looked into the nest but I don't think it would save me any energy. And I'm wondering if that's actually true for lots of people.
I have a modulating (i.e. change flame level) condensing boiler (the highest efficiency available). I programmed it to run as close to 24/7 as I could, because that way it uses the lowest flame, which is the most efficient flame.
When I tried a setback thermostat when the boiler attempted to rewarm the house it shifted to a higher and therefor less efficient flame. So I gave up on that and let it run on low all the time. So there would be no peak usage by me.
As people shift to more efficient ways to heating I suspect that this will happen to everyone. Not just modulating boilers, but also multi-stage heating with a heat pump. By trying to rapidly heat the home you can't use the heat pump.
It's also true with an A/C - the faster you are trying to cool the larger temperature gradient you need, and therefor you lose efficiency.
It's also true with an A/C - the faster you are trying to cool the larger temperature gradient you need, and therefor you lose efficiency.
I'm not sure that's always correct. The Coefficient of Performance (heat moved/work done, higher COP is better) of an A/C is:
COP = T_hot / (T_hot - T_cold).
T_cold is the inside temp, T_hot is outside of the heat exchanger. The narrow the temperature range, the better the COP. Thus the A/C will actually be more efficient in terms of heat moved per watt while it's cooling a warm house down than when it's already cool.
There's one other factor that applies. The rate of heat transferring into the house is proportional to the temperature difference. Once the house has warmed up, you reach equilibrium. The net heat flow stops, so the total amount of energy you need to remove later stops rising. If you run the A/C all the time, heat is transferring in all the time. So the total amount of heat you need to move back outside in a day increases significantly if you leave the A/C on.
> I programmed it to run as close to 24/7 as I could, because that way it uses the lowest flame, which is the most efficient flame.
The energy loss from your home increases as the differential between inside and outside increases, right? So at night or when you're out, if your house were kept colder, then you'd lose less energy to the outside.
So by keeping your heating running 24/7, you're wasting some energy in the extra energy loss when you're out, right?
How does this compare to the efficiency gain by running your more efficient flame? Have you calculated or measured that you actually save energy overall?
> I work at Nest and it may be a little unclear at the moment (we're working on it), but The Nest API does not guarantee that if you send an ETA of 15 minutes (docs: https://developer.nest.com/documentation/eta-guide), the home will heat to the appropriate level in 15 minutes. It's actually filtered through our algorithms to determine the best course of action to not waste energy but also provide the appropriate level of comfort.
So you're accepting the ETA request not as a demand to obtain a certain temperature, but as a request, and then still taking utility demand information into account. Excellent.
I am not talking about wasting money, I am talking about the actual energy itself as money is more renewable than energy. Once it has been used, it is extremely difficult to get back.
I would be extremely cautious about #1 (replacing PNGs with CSS3 transforms and drop shadows). Your page load time may decrease but your website performance will suffer. For example, when we swapped out CSS3 box-shadows for repeating PNGs with the same color gradients/transparency, the scrolling performance on our page increased dramatically. I would also say from a design perspective, the 2nd Book of Mormon browser-rendered transform looks significantly worse. The edges are not being anti-aliased.
This can turn out not to be a problem if the startup hits some reasonable growth (growth is usually a solution to such ails as long as it continues).
This is the important line in the article. Co-founder breakups probably happen more because the startup is not doing well, and not vice versa. I'm not sure if it makes sense to try and optimize for not running into co-founder problems as much as just optimizing for your company's success as normal.
If your company is killing it, and you're a co-founder and you've got 10% and you want to be the CEO and your grad school dropout grace period is ending and you'd rather be working on technical problems, you're most likely going to stick it out regardless.
Almost all startups run into trouble at some point. If you don't have a good relationship with your cofounder because of one the problems, it's unlikely that you'll create a successful startup given the high probably of running into a down period. For example, Facebook had this issue in spite of its huge growth.
Another way of thinking of it is that doing things to maximize success is far more important than what percentage of a hypothetical future success you get: 10% of billions is much better than 50% of millions, which is better than 90% of nothing. So really the percentage only matters insofar as its psychological impact might influence chances of success.
I hadn't thought about that perspective before. It's possible that many co-founders that wouldn't stick together are merely together because of the perceived success. Makes me even more grateful for co-founders that stick around even when things are bad. I don't think you can hack 100% of those situations where things look bad and make them look positive.
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If you're interested, please email me with information about yourself to vibhu@origami.com and I'll get back to you right away.
I don't think it's fair to bunch all 400+ Y Combinator companies together like this. You'll probably find good and bad benefits packages with the same frequency across all small startups. Y Combinator certainly does not get their hands dirty in the operational, HR, or recruitment strategies of their funded companies; that's really up to the founders.
Perhaps what you want to say is that you don't like the benefits packages that startups with young founders provide, because they don't understand what a more senior engineer expects on that side of the compensation equation. That might be more fair.
When customers walk into a Barnes and Noble (or any bookstore) and browse books but don't buy (for example, because they found a cheaper price online), they are most likely to end up on Amazon to complete the purchase. B&N did the work but Amazon got the money.
Amazon doesn't have that problem. They don't need to sell books in the store to "pay the store's operating expense" - they just need people to come in and browse.
Currently, Amazon doesn't compete for a high percentage of books (50%) moved through physical stores [2]. They are in the enviable position of being able to create stores that don't leak sales to competitors. This is the final nail in B&N's coffin.
[1] http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/05/amazon-has-basically...
[2] http://www.dailydot.com/business/ebook-sales-2013-revenue/