People always talk about shareholder value like it's some outrageous weird thing. Really, shareholders are just.. owners. And managers are their agents.
Let's say you hire a general contractor to remodel your house. How would you feel about him doing what's good for society without consulting you - e.g. buying sustainable material that is more expensive, or locally sourced material that is less durable or less safe? Or hiring more workers like they do on NYC construction projects cause it's good for labor? Especially if it's something you disagree with, like he's maga and refuses to hire cheaper immigrants, giving preference to disgraced former cops. When the bill comes with all the extra costs, hed just say he's not working for the owner value but for the good of society as he sees it :)
Various estimates of GDP loss from IPCC and such are iirc like 8-10%. That would catastrophically plunge us all the way to the dark ages of a few years ago. I just googled for the most alarmist estimates backed by an actual paper and the worst I could find was 12% per degree of extra warming by 2100. So, it's like going back from today to the 90ies. I mean having to listen to grunge and techno again does sound pretty catastrophic.
So let me get this straight, going back 30-ish years is a-okay when caused by climate change but going back slightly less to curb it is a problem? We haven’t reached some sort of equilibrium and will stay at the currently committed level of climate change, it’s just getting worse.
This is all so maddeningly stupid and frightening.
I found the biggest estimate from a paper as a reference for "catastrophic"/"humanity is done for"/... comments.
The more likely estimates are much lower.
What do you mean by going back slightly less, in terms of measures to take?
Sure, on the merit this particular action was dumb. But on the net I think fossil fuels are for the time being a net positive and non-replacement phase out would be worse than the amount of warming it prevents, not slightly less bad; especially in the developing world.
And, because like in so many political issues, nuanced positions aren't really popular (as these we're all gonna die comments illustrate), if having to choose between two flavors of uncompromising shouting I'm going to go with the fossil fuel camp on this issue. Although I d personally prefer more of both plus carbon tax etc for the shift.
But my original comment was just trying to put catastrophising into perspective,"following the science" ;)
When I was growing up we had an old Soviet fridge at our dacha. It was at least 30 years old (maybe more, it's age was definitely compared to my mother's on multiple occasions) and it was working 3 months out of a year in unheated uninsulated room in up to 90 degree heat, while sitting idle thru Russian winter.
The only issue with it was that the door didn't close too well. My more conscientious family would bend down to push it gently, whereas I would just kick it. It took me less time to quit smoking than to quit kicking fridges every time I close the door. I think I was still kicking fridges in the US in 2010 after last seeing that one in 2000. It was also small and didn't have any features other than producing some amount of cold air. But it worked! It still works for all I know.
If most hand wringing in this thread is to be taken at face value this is what we should pivot to :)
I complained the same way about Speed 40, my 2011 one is more intact than 2018 one and I use it more even after buying the newer one. According to people in the outdoor industry the materials are noticeably more flimsy cause everyone wants ultralight ultralight ultralight ultralight. Nobody wants sturdy. Just look at carbon poles .. these things have no reason to exist unless you are setting a winter record on PCT. But they all but replaced much sturdier aluminum poles. Interestingly a few years ago this brand was suggested to me as one of those bucking the trend, but I guess that didn't last.
I'm in the same camp of the people who like using things forever. However, I find that I'm in a small minority... I am not even talking about clothing, fast fashion etc., people around me are constantly doing kitchen renovations, changing cars every few years, phones every year, etc.
What's the point of building for durability if there's no demand for it?
Moreover, if you look at expensive cars or furniture, the markup on them has to be higher than cheap stuff. Honda Fit is like 20% of the price of a BMW, but I bet doesn't cost 20% to manufacture... So if people wanted quality it would be better for companies to produce more of the expensive option. Either companies are dumb or people don't want quality.
I just recently got a coffee grinder that costs 3 times as much as my old one and it's actually better across multiple dimensions, including material e.g. metal vs plastic . But how many units do you think the plastic junk at 0.33x the price sells vs mine?
See what we could achieve if we unionized software industry? Come on people, get on board, this fantasy of being exempt from worker solidarity is such an American "temporarily embarrassed millionaire" thing that is not serving anyone.
We can all agree that the code written by one person is clearly unsafe, we need 100% pair programming by law and at least 15 people and 2 scrum matsres per scrum to ensure proper working conditions.
We are talking about micro plastics, the specific harms of which aren't even quantified that well (DALY?), and their future impact given current climate with regard to environmental tradeoffs.
Now, what would your comment look like, for example, in context of adopting coal, that is demonstrably much much worse for health and environment and also was adopted when there was hardly any law or public pressure to protect nature?
If we extrapolate the catastrophising it would seem downright apocalyptic. And yet, coal adoption unambiguously led to increased life expectancy and quality of life. Now let's do the tradeoff for plastics :)
It would be a wonderful world if only people could force those running a less dumb economy to abide by their dumber rules. Wouldn't it be awesome if NK could park a navy somewhere and make sure everyone does things for the benefits of The People and not in whatever selfish way they do them now?
Natives start with every advantage that immigrants don't have, so it sounds like the time for the worlds tiniest violin.
I think the USA is one of, if not the most meritocratic major societies in the world and throughout history (massive immigration despite relatively weak welfare state seems to indicate many with experience of other countries agree).
The unsaid implication is that non immigrant American poor is one of the most meritless major demographics to have ever existed. I mean look at some pictures from a Trump rally (or a left wing equivalent). Are these people prevented by immigrant competition from getting tech jobs? I am surprised they manage to keep breathing in and out without detailed instructions and constant supervision.
USG should save money by paying other countries to take these guys instead.
"cannot think of a single success story with PE that has created a successful company that hasn't imploded. I belive most PE funds lose money too. Why anyone would buy a company that a PE fund has gotten its hooks into is beyond me."
It's funny that the narrative where a bunch of generally smart well connected people renowned for their greed set money on fire for decades doesn't make you rethink your priors.
Let's say you hire a general contractor to remodel your house. How would you feel about him doing what's good for society without consulting you - e.g. buying sustainable material that is more expensive, or locally sourced material that is less durable or less safe? Or hiring more workers like they do on NYC construction projects cause it's good for labor? Especially if it's something you disagree with, like he's maga and refuses to hire cheaper immigrants, giving preference to disgraced former cops. When the bill comes with all the extra costs, hed just say he's not working for the owner value but for the good of society as he sees it :)
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