It’s more like conditioning the posterior of a response on “Ok, so…” lets the model enter a better latent space for answering logically vs just spitting out a random token.
e.g. because of Big VC (a16z, other firms with dozens or hundreds of investing staff), VCs don't stick around firms long enough for real returns (cash distributed) to matter. If you're at a place and your stuff is marked up 10x after 4 years, you just hop to become a GP and try to ride the next markup wave. Even if these people exit VC after 10 years that is still 10 years of deals that all flopped.
This might not even be the individual VC's fault -- there may just be too many venture dollars chasing too few power law returns, so you get a surge of startups circa 2019-2022 that all disappear
> This might not even be the individual VC's fault -- there may just be too many venture dollars chasing too few power law returns, so you get a surge of startups circa 2019-2022 that all disappear
This feels right to me: the common trend between the dotcom bubble, mortgage bubble, tech bubble, blockchain bubble, and now the AI bubble has been big investors very high returns to make up for previous losses, like a gambler trying to win back, and it’s destroyed a lot of companies which had an idea which could have been a sustainable medium-size business but were funded and tried to grow as the next Google/Facebook without apparent recognition of how unusual advertising is for the ability to grow profits rapidly without scaling costs at the same rate.
As is usually the case, check the data! A lot of the dataset used has fairly morbid scenarios, so the model is working as expected. All the data was synthetically created with GPT4
Yes, the climate boogeyman shows up as a common anti-tech trope since most people don’t look into the breakdown of emissions. Basically everything in direct consumer control pales in comparison to transit (car/truck/boat/plane).
I actually think there are a few, only some have achieved critical mass with smaller subnetworks. BlueSky and Threads both seem to have attracted non-tech networks although Threads downranked political content, so BlueSky seems like the natural next mass appeal product.
This is exactly how Ive seen things occur. It makes a lot of sense, given some tools are great new additions (coding especially), but others fall flat (IMO, search)
You can learn things top-down or bottoms-up. I can read & understand most reverse engineering posts like this because I have a strong "bottoms-up" foundation with an EE degree and worked with microcontrollers. But when I read posts by hobbyist mechanical engineers about some 3D printed piston that uses ball bearings I have to approach it in a top-down "recreate what they did and go deep any time I'm lost" manner.
