Nothing represents the idea that cars were intended to be absolutely welded to the idea of respectable American society than the "parkway" (it's a park, but you drive on it!).
A lot of a baby's language pickup is also based on what other people do in response to their attempts, linguistically and behaviourally. Read-only observation is obviously a big part of it, but it's not "exactly" the same.
Right. But that happens too with ML models during training - the model makes a prediction given training example input, which is evaluated against expected output, rinse repeat. A single example is very similar to doing something in response to a stimuli, and observing the reaction. Here it's more of predicting a reaction and getting feedback on accuracy, but that's part of our learning too - we remember things that surprise us, tune out those we can reliably predict.
No, but when you do that you have to make sure it's used in a maximally ironic way like making a spy plane to use against them. Double points for telling them (or saying you told them) a story that makes them look like mugs in retrospect like "it's for pizza ovens, don't worry about it".
Last I heard it was the back of the plane that was statistically safer. Most people still seem to want the front because it gets you off the plane faster and puts you at the front of the passport queue. Especially on larger planes going to places with lots of non-locals going through the slower manual channels.
What's nuts to me is the time scale on the bottom. That is not a lot of time for something so complex.
Then again, if they do an Intel 10nm+++++ and fail to maintain velocity even for a couple of years, their competition will close that gap very quickly.
At the top nodes and volumes, indeed there is no competition. They have a huge headstart handed to them basically by Japan screwing it up in the 90s and no one else being able to step (get it?) up quickly before the gap opened.
However, if they can't keep moving, competition that was trailing behind on larger nodes could get close enough that they become competitors for the high end. At first it would be slightly bigger nodes, but cheaper, which might be an acceptable tradeoff, as not everyone in the world is chasing performace over price. CPUs are so gruesomely overpowered these days that it may not really matter that much in many end applications.
Think AMD coming up behind Intel while Intel was thrashing around.
How long the AI hype continues may be important: if AI capabilities are needed in end-user equipment and that requires the real cutting edge processes, ASML/TSMC keep the advantage.
ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future.
However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools and final products are never exported.
Seriously, try to design anything non-trivial without a TI part anywhere. Even in China, foreign brands are everywhere in electronics, and much of it is imported.
There's a lot of scope left for China to penetrate the "low end" semiconductor (and other electronic parts) market as well.
>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China.
Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.
Or they skip EUV all together and go straight to xray.
IMO that is the real threat to both ASML and the current Western supply chain. By forcing China out you make it very likely they will choose to leap-frog instead of try play catch-up. They did it with EVs there is a very good chance they do it with semiconductors also.
It would need entirely new resist, lenses, associated inspection, cleaning and repair equipment etc.
Which sounds like a terrible idea until you realize they would need all the same stuff for EUV except when they are done they would still be ~10-15 years behind.
Building an entirely new process based on xray would be challenging certainly but not that much more challenging from going from where they are to EUV.
Alternatively, present wavelengths are what make sense, and attempts to go to shorter wavelength will only cause delay.
If one goes for particle accelerator based systems with wigglers, then of course none of this will matter, since the wavelength will be variable and one can use whatever wavelength is ideal, but the idea that going to shorter wavelengths is always better is something I think is crazy. There'll be some optimal wavelength.
I don't think that applies to technology that no one else really has. China is great at bringing down cost of something the west can already produce...they just flood the market with lower cost versions that destroy the business case for developing those products in the west. Solar panels, rare earth refinement, drones, EVs, etc...the west can do all of that, but if they undercut the market, they won't and eventually those capabilities stagnate.
But if they have something the west doesn't have, why sell it and up an advantage? We aren't friends. There are plenty of things the Chinese aren't selling to the west already (real innovations), and vice versa.
They might want to sell... but who might (want to) buy, outside of Russia and maybe India? The Western world is already decoupling from China and I think it's completely infeasible that anyone wants to create new ties to China.
Anyone is a stretch, not everyone is so keen to take the US side in the trade war at their own expense. South American and African trade is still pretty brisk and growing as far as I know. Mostly they don't have the possibility of onshoring industries that they didn't have in the first place, as opposed to the West where it's more like attempting to re-shore previously-discarded capability. So they don't really have a horse in the race, they're going to be importing anyway.
"Anyone planning a major semiconductor fab in the 2020s", then quite probably, yes.
Everyone wants to do business with China, because China has money (which we gave them) and everyone wants that money (which will ultimately go back to them with change and interest).
Lest we forget, Japan and South Korea are mulling a free trade agreement[1] with China.
Anyone following US-led sanctions against China are doing so dragging their feet and groaning in annoyance.
Sounds like the UK too. All my school friend doing non-STEM courses would ask me how many "contact hours" we had per week.
I can't remember exactly how many, but once you included lectures, scheduled labs and tutorials, was not that far from 9-5 (minus the standard university-wide Wednesday afternoon sport slot).
The friends would go quiet and say "oh, we have 12".
And that didn't even incude the "non-contact" hours in the labs grinding the coursework until security shooed us out late at night so they could lock the building. Good times (in retrospect, especially).
Yeah, I did Physics in the UK and it was the same.
Plus in one term there was some miscommunication between the professors and they set us one experiment every week instead of every two weeks, I remember literally working like 12 hour days on the weekends to get all the data analysis and reports done.
My prediction: a country which has the political and technical ability to do so and is located somewhere where global warming starts being a major threat to it. Likely candidates: India and neighbors (wet bulb events depopulating large area) or China (inundation of the biggest population centres). This country eventually says "fuck it" and just does it, international opinion be damned. Everyone else in the world will proceed to performatively freak the fuck out. But, they'll all be watching closely and if it works, they'll all be doing it fairly soon. Again, if it works, in the eventual biopic, it'll be mentioned as an aside that they weren't 100% sure if the atmosphere would be destroyed or not, but they forged ahead.
The good news, since an internet forum's commentariat opinion isn't relevant to whether it happens or not, is that humanity is a couple of teratonnes into a 200-year experiment of many kinds of atmospheric modification and nothing critically non-linear has happened yet. Though we certainly don't have many sigmas of confidence that it isn't going to go non linear (but in the "hot" direction) at some point!
We're even doing a cute little cross-over trial specifically on atmospheric sulphur dioxide injection (just entered the second placebo phase)
In the scenario that China and India barrel into atmospheric experiments, they may be able to secure group funding from the larger island nations with high levels of buildup near the coast. I think you make a good point that we are centuries into an experiment (or longer if one wants to group all anthropogenic change like megafauna extinction) and I think that people living in places that have a high coastline to area ratio will be more likely to see it this way - perhaps even considering themselves primary subjects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkway
And of course it turns out Robert Moses' fingerprints are on it.