I don't think much changed, really. The contraband and services offered on these marketplaces has always been backed by criminal enterprises. Mostly the markets provided level of indirection that made purchasing palatable and gave a false sense of safety.
Online markets for sex work allowed women to operate far more safely than "the street" allow. I had friends who were affected by the crackdown on craigslist etc.
I sincerely didn't mean to minimize the harm to sex workers, which is devastating.
My point is rather that an online marketplace in the absence of decriminalization and reform can only provide a marginal increase in safety. Sex workers marketing on Backpage, Craigslist, Onlyfans, and IG still face a great deal of risk of violence, pressure from pimps, and prosecution by law enforcement. It's a deeply complex systematic issue which can't be fixed by a website.
For drugs in particular, darknet marketplaces primarily rely on unspeakably violent criminal enterprises upstream. The consumers, sellers, and communities implicated in this supply chain are all losers in this system. The cartels are the winners and the global "war on drugs" establishment are a close second place.
Still, in the case of sex work, I think you are simply wrong. Your overall sketch is the "movie version" or police/puritanical version of sex work, a version that equates trafficking and voluntary transactions (not that those transactions can't exploitative in other ways). The majority sex work isn't filled with violence except on the level of the literal street. Notably, my friends and acquaintances who used Craigslist back in the day didn't deal with any pimps and a moment's thought would show pimps are only needed when someone sells sex at a physical location.
Also, afaik, onlyfans is a virtual only platform so workers there face the same physical dangers as people on zoom calls.
> a moment's thought would show pimps are only needed when someone sells sex at a physical location
Pimps are needed whenever there is coercion involved. It seems unlikely to me that only street prostitution requires coercion. I think we'll soon learn that most of the women on OnlyFans are there because of a violent and manipulative man.
Thank you for the kind elaboration. I wonder if you could share any writing on the social justice issues surrounding sex work? My knowledge is limited and informed by only a few pieces I've read over the years.
Illegal online marketplaces absolutely do reduce "turf wars". It's argueable that there is harm reduction compared to street dealing. Then I suspect it creates new consumers so there is that too.
Sure, but the point is about secondary effects. If pimps are "competing" online then they need to compete on, well, marketing and UX. If they compete in real life then it is about who controls physical territory.
There are lots of studies about the unintended consequences of prohibition.
Cheating is such a bummer in CS, even in casual matches. Luckily it’s usually pretty obvious and you can either kick the cheater or find a better lobby. Having friends on there has made finding good lobbies in general much easier
That's really good, I watched one of their older videos to understand what I was getting into before I bought a Toyota a few years back. For those reading, the video is from Weber State University, they have a series of hourish long detailed videos on various automotive components including different versions of the Toyota electric transaxle and rear electric drive unit (mechanically separate but present in the AWD vehicles).
My takeaway was the same as some of the other posters here, the system is an engineering tour de force. Simpler than the gas version, proven reliability, and efficiency not too far off the theoretical limit of gas-burning drive trains.
This video cleared up my confusion and corrected my misconceptions, giving me enough knowledge to hold a one-hour discussion with an actual Toyota mechanic.
We lost our house to the Eaton fire this morning. It’s difficult to describe the vastness of the destruction in our community. Everything within a couple square miles of us burned.
That’s devastating, and I hope you can stay strong through the recovery process. As a nearby neighbor a couple of communities over, do you know of anything that I can do or donate to help generally that won’t be a waste/too late? Like donate masks or water or something?
The only guidance I’ve heard so far is that the shelters are in need of bedding. Neither of the press briefings today offered more opportunities for support.
I lived through another major wildfire in SoCal and the organization that provided the best support was the California Community Foundation: https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/953510055
I’d wait until the smoke settles (because the CCF focuses on less well-off communities than Altadena or the Palisades) but donating to their wildfire relief efforts does a lot of good regardless. They frequently give grants to the local organizations running the evacuation shelters.
I would second this and say donate today. Focusing on who has money and who doesn’t today is really not a good policy. It is a generalization that is bound to misclassify some old ladies on a fixed income (my mom has one sleeping on her couch because of this). People who lost their homes and all their possessions yesterday and today may not be as wealthy as they were 24 hours ago.
I keep seeing questions about the location of Karen Bass and I don't understand the outrage. Did she fly to Ghana when the fires erupted? Is she not allowed to take vacations? Was she expected to magically reappear in California when things got out of hand? Has her responsiveness been extremely latent.
Ok, I understand some of the criticism now. 1.) She cut funding to the fire department budget by millions of dollars. 2.) There is a video floating around where she is totally unresponsive to questions.
"That assertion is wrong. The city was in the process of negotiating a new contract with the fire department at the time the budget was being crafted, so additional funding for the department was set aside in a separate fund until that deal was finalized in November. In fact, the city’s fire budget increased more than $50 million year-over-year compared to the last budget cycle, according to Blumenfield’s office, although overall concerns about the department’s staffing level have persisted for a number of years."
From behind a keyboard and who knows how far away from Los Angeles you are, you may look at it with other eyes than the people who lost their homes in the fires.
And yes, in the end the mayor is responsible for the wellbeing of the city. And people see the mayor is nowhere to be found when their homes burned down. Who do you want them to be mad at?
Texas governor was in Acapulco and nobody blamed him.
Anyway on topic an aunt of mine is a mayor of a small city (55k). Her opinion is that firefighters fight fires and having a politician walk around a disaster area with a hundred journalists isn't helping.
I think the outrage is part political, but it's also justified. The warnings were in place that the fire risk was extreme. The language experts were using to describe the upcoming weather conditions was "unprecedented," given both the winds and importantly the lack of measurable rain. These warnings were issued many days in advance of fires starting, before Karen Bass went to Africa, and yet, even with these warnings in place, she decided to get on a plane and head to Africa. I can 100% guarantee she was briefed on that, that she had deliberations with her staff about it, and that she decided to hop on the plane anyway. I do think it was a major strategic mistake on her part and I think people are rightly outraged about it. Of course the political part has poured gasoline on that legitimate outrage and that part is appalling since the crisis is still very much ongoing.
Of course that outrage assumes you believe that a mayor should be on the scene even if they're not, in this case, holding onto a hose and actively suppressing fire. I personally think that's a fair ask of her constituents. It would be an entirely different story if this was an unpredictable situation, but, again, every expert commenting pointed out how unique the upcoming weather was and that there was the very real potential for massive fires.
Many were asking the question when the news came out prior to the fires. In terms of actual management, I'd rather leave that to the city's experts. As long as the city didn't pay for it (which was the assumption), then I'm ok with it. Otherwise, I'd rather she spend her time here trying to fix domestic issues.
I think it's one of those issues where both sides of the aisle could agree except for the right-wing side turned it into this weird DEI stuff.
I don't live in LA but would Karen Bass even have much of any input? The palisades is mostly Santa Monica no? Sure its part of LA county but why would the mayor of LA have any input on Santa Monica / Santa Monica mountains. Genuinely curious why she is in the spotlight compared to the local officials in Santa Monica?
Edit: I continue to see her name pop up in the news and I have been trying to understand how LA works in that she is in the complete spotlight. There are fires in surrounding LA but does the city of LA mayor have any control in those?
> She went to Ghana on a taxpayer paid political junket, which doesn't seem like something the mayor of even a major city would be officially involved in
I live in a very mid-size city for my province and our mayor goes on international trips on city business maybe once a year. The fact itself is not out of the ordinary.
That assertion is wrong. The city was in the process of negotiating a new
contract with the fire department at the time the budget was being crafted,
so additional funding for the department was set aside in a separate fund
until that deal was finalized in November. In fact, the city’s fire budget
increased more than $50 million year-over-year compared to the last budget
cycle, according to Blumenfield’s office, although overall concerns about
the department’s staffing level have persisted for a number of years.
So… no?
DEI obsessed fire chief…DEI office and bureaucracy.
I grew up in north-central Pasadena and had many friends who lived in Altadena, and it’s been heartbreaking to watch the news from a distance and realize that many of their homes might have burned.
Later: I came across a streamer’s video taken from his motorcycle as he rode through Altadena on Wednesday afternoon. In this part, he passes through a burned-out neighborhood I used to know:
From the street signs, I was able to identify a location where a high school friend of mine lived—the house now burned to the ground. (It’s been nearly fifty years since I graduated from high school, and I don’t know if her family still lives there or not.)
I'm sorry for your loss. Are you lucky enough to be in a place where insurers in California are still operating? Hopefully you can at least get financial situation taken off your mind
> Are you lucky enough to be in a place where insurers in California are still operating?
California has had a state fire insurer (FAIR) of last resort for over fifty years and fire insurance is practically mandatory for mortgages so there aren’t many places that are excluded.
It’s entirely funded by premiums and has never been bailed out by state or federal funds. It’s not like the National Insurance Flood Program that’s burned billions of dollars in federal funding to subsidize people living in flood plains and Florida.
TIL! Thanks for the info. I didn't know there was an actually functioning state fire insurance plan. I guess all those news articles about insurers pulling out of California is political propaganda I fell for :/
That propaganda isn’t entirely wrong. There’s a regulatory agency in California that controls insurance premiums and they’ve kept the insurers from raising rates to account for the real risks so insurers have been pulling out. CalFAIR is still available for everyone so it’s not a total shit show but with over 10k structures destroyed so far, we’ll see whether the state has to bail the program out.
Mortgage firms demand Home insurance policies which it covers some fires, but not all fires. E.g. if there’s an earthquake and it causes a natural gas fire, you’re not covered by home insurance. Same goes for if there’s a flood and it causes a fire, not covered.
I suspect long term fire insurance due to wildfire will not be covered by home insurance policies. As it’s not a “random” event, and instead a risk of certain areas.
> I suspect long term fire insurance due to wildfire will not be covered by home insurance policies. As it’s not a “random” event, and instead a risk of certain areas.
Insurance companies cover known risks all the time. The greater the risk, the higher the premiums.
As long as insurance companies are permitted to accurately and fully price the risk into premiums, anything is insurable — at least in concept.
Your statement is not entirely accurate. Under the insuring agreement of a typical homeowner’s insurance policy, fire—including wildfire—is a covered peril, unless specifically excluded elsewhere in the policy. Standard policies are designed to provide coverage for direct physical loss or damage caused by fire, regardless of whether the fire is “random” or arises in wildfire-prone areas.
While some exclusions may apply to fires caused by excluded perils (e.g., floods or earthquakes) or to contributory factors like neglect, wildfires are generally not excluded in standard homeowner’s insurance policies.
I recommend doing some careful consideration about how intrinsically tied up politics are to every facet of our lives. You may find this distasteful, but choosing to ignore it merely blinds you to the way that power works in the United States.
I recommend realizing how crass your comments are. You won’t though which is fine by, there will always be a population on each side that is blinded by their own ideology. Discussion is valuable, finger pointing is cheap and is a lame method that both sides on the fringes use. There is a reason your comment is below 0.
Yes, there are parts of California that are uninsurable against wildfires. Technically they could be insurable but State regulators will not allow insurance companies to raise premiums sufficient to cover the actuarial risk. The necessary premiums are prohibitively expensive for homeowners, but anything less risks bankrupting the insurance companies and increases their reinsurance costs which also must be passed on to homeowners.
This is mostly on the California government, since the high insurance premiums are a side effect of disastrous wildfire mitigation policy in California. More proactive and competent wildfire mitigation would reduce the risk and therefore make insurance premiums more reasonable.
> More proactive and competent wildfire mitigation would reduce the risk and therefore make insurance premiums more reasonable.
Or... not building mansions next to forestry? In Germany we have pretty strict requirements on distances, so it's rare for damages to occur. Also, most of our power grid infrastructure is buried below ground, so videos like the ones circulating on Twitter from arcing lines setting bushes and trees alight can't really happen here either.
Prevention is orders of magnitude cheaper in the long run.
The largest power company in CA is in the process of burying its cables.
The risk level is not just affected by proximity to forests. For offshore (Santa Ana) wind events, the riskiest areas are the SW bottom of hills and near canyons. That's where the current LA fires are.
IMO, a better prevention measure would be to not build houses out of sticks. That's already the case for much of the housing in Europe. Alas, here in the US the colonial and cabin aesthetics still win out, even when fire-resistant options aren't more expensive.
Coffey Park in Santa Rosa was destroyed in 2017, and most properties were rebuilt to lower fire-resistance standards.[1] The second little pig just doesn't wanna hear it.
> IMO, a better prevention measure would be to not build houses out of sticks. That's already the case for much of the housing in Europe. Alas, here in the US the colonial and cabin aesthetics still win out, even when fire-resistant options aren't more expensive.
It is not an aesthetic preference, the US used to construct housing like in Europe through the 19th century.
That style of construction was repeatedly catastrophically destroyed by severe earthquakes, killing many people needlessly, and is now illegal in many regions.
The US became strict about seismic safety after the famous 1906 San Francisco earthquake[0]. A few decades earlier, the 1872 Lone Pine earthquake[1] literally flattened entire towns of European-style construction; some of these are now ghost towns that were simply abandoned and never rebuilt. When you see surviving old masonry buildings, they usually have been retroactively refitted with steel frames to make the masonry mostly decorative.
The regions of the US prone to wildfire are also prone to severe earthquakes, so your options are wood or steel frame construction, neither of which is particularly wildfire resistant but at least it won't collapse during a severe earthquake. Many parts of the US also have to engineer for much higher wind loadings than in Europe.
You can build masonry buildings that meet the seismic standard but that requires a lot of steel and is expensive. Where I live, all modern construction is required to survive a M8.5 earthquake; I've never seen a house in Europe engineered to that standard.
Your argument only applies to unreinforced masonry, which is no longer allowed by code in seismically-prone areas. For fire resistance you can use reinforced concrete, steel or aluminum framing, or wood framing with non-combustible walls. Or even go exotic with various prefab options and 3D printing.
As for the higher cost, this has become mostly an urban myth. In regions with low construction costs such as the South or the Midwest ($130-180/sqft,) the cost difference is minimal. In areas with high construction costs such as CA ($200-700/sqft,) the difference is either immaterial or negative (thanks to the insurance savings.)
My argument applies to reinforced masonry as well. You seem to be operating from a naive model of what is required to prevent combustion of buildings. We already use non-flammable walls in a lot of places; it is a speed bump for a serious fire without a lot of additional mitigations.
Most typical reinforced masonry will fail during a severe earthquake, for which there is ample empirical evidence. The cost to reinforce masonry to e.g. a M8.5 standard is not small. The quantity of rebar, ties, etc required is expensive in both time and material. It isn’t cheap nor does the labor exist at the scale required.
I actually live in exotic construction, designed for extreme seismic and wind loads. Lots of steel, not much concrete, and extremely fire resistant (even though that isn’t a requirement here) but much cheaper to build and more seismic resistant (in theory) than reinforced concrete, which is what it replaces (its raison d’être). No structural wood either, but it wouldn’t be economical to construct a typical house this way.
This is an active area of research. If it was an “urban myth” there wouldn’t be so many engineering firms investing in developing new construction techniques that provide seismic resistance without the cost. If reinforced masonry actually worked in a reasonable way, we’d just use that.
I live in SF. The vast majority of new construction above 3 stories is reinforced concrete, including many high-rises such as the (infamous) 58-story Millenium Tower.[1] Seismically, modern reinforced concrete performs well.
As I explained in sibling threads, "speed bumps" are the most important thing here in CA. It's not about whether your structure can withstand a 1000-degree fire all around it. It's about whether your structure will set fire to three others within minutes of when it goes up in flames.
This narrative about building houses out of sticks also rubs me the wrong way. It's an extremely naive take on why it happens. The reason most homes in America are wood framed is really down to economics. Europe does not have as vast of a forest stock for lumber as the US/Canada does. Over time we have specialized in building wood framed homes and because of lumber, its cheaper.
These homes would have been destroyed regardless of building material. The bigger issue is most of these homes have probably not properly gone through fire mitigation steps.
> These homes would have been destroyed regardless of building material.
That's just not the case. Fire-resistant construction might not always help the first house at the subdivision's edge, but it will help the rest. One analogy is control rods in a reactor.
As I said in another post, the problem with firestorms here in CA is the rate of initial spread. We always get massive numbers of destroyed structures all at once, and <25% containment until the winds subside. The ignition source for most of the structures are burning wood-frame structures. Early on, firefighters can only help evacuate people.
I don’t think that is entirely correct in the cost angle but it’s ok.
As I said before the homes are of course an issue but the larger issue is basic fire prevention, not the fact that homes are as you say “built out of twigs”. It is certainly a factor but the more important piece are all the other steps that go before as I linked earlier.
This was a freak event with record wind speeds so basic fire prevention couldn’t help short of bulldozing every other house in the affected neighborhoods and salting the earth. After the Camp fire and the lightning complex fires, California insurers got really serious about fire insurance inspections and mitigation. Problem is that normal mitigation like setbacks and vulcan vents don’t help when Santa Ana winds send fist sized burning embers for up to a mile in front of the fire. Only really expensive and ecologically problematic measures like external Phos-Chek sprinklers would help in that case, which is what saved a few celebrity hokes in the Palisades.
Only well funded commercial and government campuses like JPL or the Getty can afford the kind of fire suppression measures required to defend against a conflagration of this magnitude.
> IMO, a better prevention measure would be to not build houses out of sticks. That's already the case for much of the housing in Europe.
The only thing that helps against is hurricanes and other storm events. Once the fire has blown up the windows and embers (or outright flames) enter the interior, it's game over generally. You might be able to re-use a concrete or brick structure after a large fire, but if the fire ran unchecked until it burned out everything, no chance - concrete will have lost rebar integrity and bricks will have soaked up toxic combustion products.
Here in CA, it's more about reducing the spreading speed than about the resistance level once the fire gets there. All the large structure fires in recent years spread at breakneck speeds during an offshore wind event. In these cases, all that firefighters can do early on is evacuate people.
As someone pointed out above, California has the FAIR plan for over 50 years which has been pretty effective. This LA fire might be its biggest test. Basically there's no part of California that is not insurable against wildfire
Would it make sense to allow this? The models as you said make it a non viable buisness and where that gap exists scams move in, which the routinely have to be bailed out by the public.
Luckily we insured through the California State Fair plan. FEMA may also be able to provide some assistance. We’re learning as much as we can as fast as we can, but it can be difficult to source accurate information. Thank you for your kindness.
Houses almost all use wood framing. Rarely they use steel framing, which is more expensive and provides worse insulation. None use concrete or masonry because it is illegal to build a house that will collapse during a M7-8 earthquake. Like Japan, construction style in the western US is driven primarily by the requirement to be extremely seismic resistant, since that is a predictable and unavoidable risk.
In Southern California, it is typical to have tile roofs and stucco exteriors, which helps protect against the embers that will rain on your house during a major wildfire.
Most houses in the US are made of wood. In Los Angeles they often have tile/concrete roofs, but I've read that in a situation like this the problem is the vents under the edge of the roof that lead into the attic: if anything burning gets through there, the house is toast.
Source: used to live in a Los Angeles hilly suburb. If the fires get to where I used to live, that house will definitely burn despite having a cement tile roof.
Insurers require ember resistant vulcan vents and the like now. It’s a relatively minor upgrade for most homeowners since its just a mesh over the vent.
No, vulcan vents only help when the exterior is capable of resisting the fire. These winds threw fist sized pieces of burning wood for hundreds of feet which is much harder to defend against.
All homeowners I know here have already had them installed over the last five years because of fire insurance inspections but I don’t know how representative my sample is.
Considering that winds both made the spread a lot further, faster and moving around fuel (trees/wood/material blowing around and ending up on streets and whatnot), it sounds unlikely any 1 solution would have prevented this.
The house was framed in 2x4 which is standard in most of the US. We did have modern fire resistant siding and roof tiles, but this was leagues beyond what any of those materials are designed for. It melted most of the steel around the property. Thank you for the kind words.
I'm very sorry to hear that your friend is experiencing this crisis and the distress it's causing you. I've been through similar episodes before, first with an immediate family member who experienced a months-long manic episode that was later diagnosed as manic bipolar disorder, then a close friend who experienced a drug-induced psychosis which evolved into long-term schizophrenia. I know how hard it is to watch someone you love behave erratically and how powerless it can feel to try and fail to help. Here's what I learned...
The most important thing you can do is take care of yourself. Your own physical and mental health are prerequisites to caring for anyone else and being a part of extreme psychological distress of someone you love takes a huge toll. Lean on whatever practices you already have to stay healthy and content. Remember that what you're witnessing is not your fault and not in your control.
The best way I've found to be supportive are to be present as much or little as I can without compromising my own being. Intervening, escalating, and trying to reason with people in this state seldom has the intended effect and often has the inverse effect. As much as you're able, accept your friend for who they are in this state, listen without judgement, and validate their experience without cosigning it. Stay in touch with their family and close friends and work together to seek medical intervention if they risk the well-being of themself or others.
I'm here if you want to talk about it on a call or over email. Same handle at gmail. Be well and keep reaching out for support.
I would add to this trying to find other people who know your friend and can help. Ideally local, but if he has friends who he trusts that he can talk to over phone/video that works too. Get their connect information. It sounds like this is beyond what any one person can handle on their own, but you are in a unique position to connect him with further resources, in general and during acute crises should they happen.
Also know that 988 is now the nationwide suicide hotline number (in the US), and that you can also use this resource for yourself to deal with your friend's situation. Look up nearby crisis centers and save their info.
Lastly, for me 'take care of yourself' means talking about the situation with trusted friends and family. There can be a tenancy to treat kinds of things as taboo, but open discussion and outside perspective can be extremely helpful.
I like the 988 advice. I'd take it a bit further... consider getting professional help (counselor, therapist, etc.) for yourself as well, at least temporarily.
I see at least two angles where this can be beneficial...
One is getting guidance on how to keep yourself as mentally healthy as possible while going through something so difficult. This is at the heart of the ideas I'm responding to above... you have to stay afloat to have any chance of helping. If you've ever been on a commercial flight, you've heard "Put on your oxygen mask before helping others with their masks." The right professional can be a big help.
Another is that a professional will be able to give you guidance about what you might be able to help your friend with, and things you probably shouldn't try to help with. Professionals have seen a much broader spectrum of situations and have a better idea of where they themselves might be able to help (or not) and where a layperson may be able to help (or not). And they can give you ideas for things to try that might help your friend while exposing you to less risk of harm.
You're taking a smart step by asking for advice. In my experience, a professional often has the best advice.
I still use one of these for media viewing on my TV, great machines as you could upgrade disks to 2TB and memory to 32 GB. This is for machines that are 12 years old! And Apple is still selling new machines with ridiculously lower specs.
I’m really sorry to hear about your friend. I’ve also had friends who experienced severe mental health issues after big trips. It can really mess things up for people with predispositions. I know many more who find the occasional trip to be a deeply spiritual and restorative experience. Hopefully research can help bring more predictability to reduce the risk. I hope your friend gets the support and treatment they need.
The exaggeration is undermining your point. What actually happened according to the linked article:
> The vote to approve the proposal came after months of public scrutiny and changes to the plan that ultimately shrunk the proposed list of banned stops from 18 different types of offenses to nine, among them driving with an expired registration and driving with a broken taillight.
When I started working with Rails in 2008 having come from PHP, both communities were pretty squarely in the MySQL camp by default. That changed quickly over the following couple of years however. As I recall, the free Heroku Postgres offering had a huge influence.
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