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Inflation will kill Americans. It may kill more Americans than Ukrainians due to the war. That's hard to say but inflation has a strong correlation with increased mortality rates.


By what mechanism will a small bump to inflation kill more Americans than the number of casualties in Ukraine?


"A 1% rise in inflation rate was associated with significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 4 population health outcomes, with the largest deterioration in male adult mortality rate (0.0033 rise per 1000 deaths)."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4716201/

Additional reading here: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.8513...

I'm not going to make the argument that more people in the US will die b/c of inflation than the war in Ukraine: that is really insensitive.

I'm just highlighting the fallacy of "oh some people have it worse, you can't complain!"

When you include the reduced life expectancy of people in Ukraine due to war it will be a lot higher :(

Without even extrapolating to higher inflation rates, I think this works out to an additional 10k deaths due to inflation?

I would not call this a "small bump" and I am the opposite of the "sky is falling due to inflation!" crowd - just trying to be grounded. It is a fairly big bump.


I’m not convinced a regression of 21 Latin American countries is representative of the United States personally. Sure, it’ll have some effect. But even 3 per thousand seems extreme to me.


I'm sure there are lots of reasons. Another big reason is real estate. There is a lot of money tied up in these properties.


They are probably referring to core inflation... also fuel contributed massively to inflation in March, which was expected, but not expected to stay high forever.


Of course, but the highest contributor was shelter/housing. Also if they are referring to core it's kind of important to make that distinction. It's not good to be loose with terminology around this just to make an argument stronger than it really is.


"I am black?"


Fair, those are the same words, but it's not the same meaning. The "I" in this term refers to two different people depending on who says it.

Are they really the same statement if they have two different meanings?


That's kind of the point, no? Context matters - and part of who is saying it is context.


Yes, but it's also very much not the kind of statement PG is talking about. It's not generally something someone would be concerned about the truth value of.


You do see the difference between saying gay people should die and being gay right? Lol


Of course, I'm commenting that "<some outgroup> needs to DIE" is always bad.


Nah, "all Nazis need to die" isn't so bad (with the conventional western definition of Nazis of course, not the one that is used by Russia today).


Paul Graham, post on the front page.


I guessed as much, it wasn’t in what I could see of the now-deleted piece.


He's insanely detached from reality. Dude should not be making social commentary lol


No. It isn't insane at all.


What topics are acceptable for teachers to hold views on?


Name one?


I witnessed someone get fired for wearing a MAGA hat in a Twitter picture at an unnamed tech company. Yes, that was the only reason. He was a good performer.

Holding a view that tens of millions of Americans have and you get fired.

It's not even particularly controversial.


I don't think this happened to very many people.


That's called moving the goalposts. Mainstream political opinions absolutely will get you fired at large tech companies.


No it isn't, because these are all anecdotes, and I never made a claim anyway, I asked you to name one.


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