Wouldn't this only hold true in perfectly efficient markets? It also seems to assume that every market participant is under the same influences. I don't care how well my holdings are doing at the end of an accounting year but a fund manager likely will.
My comment was in response to having read the linked post.
Having just finished reading it for a second time I'm still not clear. Eliezer does say, "Nobody believes the market is really "efficient" [...] but still, the market does not leave hundred-dollar-bills on the table if everyone believes in them." I'm possibly arguing against a position which has not been given but I sense there is more than this and I can't identify it.
OK, then I think the answer is that yes, of course it is possible for an individual to beat the market. It just takes luck. It's nearly impossible for you to know if you are winning because you are truly better at picking stocks than the market or if it is just luck -- but most of the time, it's going to be luck. It is a very rare investor that can consistently make much more than the market as a value investor by buying and holding long.
I can certainly agree with that. Not understanding that a choice can turn out well despite being made for bad reasons and vice versa is a frequent source of annoyance for me in others and, if I'm honest, myself.
